Abstract Earthquake prediction is an area of research H? Z5ex
of great scientiÞc and public fascination. The reason for &{]zL
this is not only that earthquakes can cause extremely ;x$,x-
large numbers of fatalities in a short time, but also c]v $C&FX
because earthquakes can have a large social and economic t Q385en
impact on society. Earthquake prediction in the JZNRM xu
sense of making deterministic predictions about the C,P>7
place, time, and magnitude of earthquakes may very M^AwOR7<
well be fundamentally impossible. However, based on |`1lCyV\tE
a variety of data, earth scientists can make statements xqs{d&W
about the probability that earthquakes with a certain 7](,/MeGG
size will occur in a certain region over a speciÞed time @Z& El:]3>
period. In this context one speaks of ÔÔearthquake forecasting. [
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ÕÕ A number of methods to achieve this are presented. "9jt2@<
However, it is not obvious how society should b
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respond to these forecasts. It is shown that there is a fundamental l<>syHCH;L
dilemma for decision makers that statements of szu!*w c9
scientists concerning earthquake occurrence either contain --4,6va`e
very speciÞc information but are very uncertain, or ?{NP3
contain very general information but are very certain. c3W 9"
Earthquake hazard can to a large extent be reduced by 0/S|h"-L
formulating and enforcing appropriate building codes. !1$Q Nxgi
However, given the fact that the majority of the population l E=(6Q
that is threatened by earthquakes is living in the third ] B/Gz
world, it is clear that this cannot easily be realized. For c
Owa^;
these reasons, earthquake prediction is not only a scienti T!0o( Pp<
Þc problem: it also has a complex political dimension. {?!=~vp
Key words Earthquakes á Forecasting á Hazard á risk á c>#T\AEkF
Decision making
