Abstract Earthquake prediction is an area of research &ayoTE^0,
of great scientiÞc and public fascination. The reason for z0Hh8*
this is not only that earthquakes can cause extremely ]uf_"D
large numbers of fatalities in a short time, but also fsu "Lc
because earthquakes can have a large social and economic {eV_+@dT
impact on society. Earthquake prediction in the j]^]p; An
sense of making deterministic predictions about the u1<kdTxA
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place, time, and magnitude of earthquakes may very f;a6ux#
well be fundamentally impossible. However, based on ;_*F [
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a variety of data, earth scientists can make statements U5=J;[w}N
about the probability that earthquakes with a certain K)OlC pHc
size will occur in a certain region over a speciÞed time cKAl 0_[f"
period. In this context one speaks of ÔÔearthquake forecasting. %Kp}Wo6
ÕÕ A number of methods to achieve this are presented. n a)ceN 2h
However, it is not obvious how society should =h{2!Ah7
X
respond to these forecasts. It is shown that there is a fundamental mQJ GKh&Pk
dilemma for decision makers that statements of dI|/Xm>
scientists concerning earthquake occurrence either contain d GjvSK<1@
very speciÞc information but are very uncertain, or 5H2|:GzUc
contain very general information but are very certain. wS4wED&a
Earthquake hazard can to a large extent be reduced by
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formulating and enforcing appropriate building codes. \3/'#
However, given the fact that the majority of the population V" 73^
that is threatened by earthquakes is living in the third .jw)e!<\N
world, it is clear that this cannot easily be realized. For u{ / gjv
these reasons, earthquake prediction is not only a scienti P]GGnT(!
Þc problem: it also has a complex political dimension. 24fWj?A| ^
Key words Earthquakes á Forecasting á Hazard á risk á ]f?LQCTq<b
Decision making
