Abstract Earthquake prediction is an area of research |~SE"
of great scientiÞc and public fascination. The reason for '!!e+\h#
this is not only that earthquakes can cause extremely R
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large numbers of fatalities in a short time, but also %a5t15 9
because earthquakes can have a large social and economic 9C_*3?6
impact on society. Earthquake prediction in the bA}Z0 a
sense of making deterministic predictions about the |G tY*|
place, time, and magnitude of earthquakes may very I*Vt ,JYx
well be fundamentally impossible. However, based on h$70H ^r
a variety of data, earth scientists can make statements oEJaH
about the probability that earthquakes with a certain re; Lg
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size will occur in a certain region over a speciÞed time [s~JceUyX
period. In this context one speaks of ÔÔearthquake forecasting. NCa~#i:F8
ÕÕ A number of methods to achieve this are presented. Y}ng_c
However, it is not obvious how society should ;SgD 5Ln}
respond to these forecasts. It is shown that there is a fundamental ]/Vh {d|I&
dilemma for decision makers that statements of *B1 x`=
scientists concerning earthquake occurrence either contain
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very speciÞc information but are very uncertain, or !"Qb}g
contain very general information but are very certain. b Fg*l$`5
Earthquake hazard can to a large extent be reduced by tM)Iir*U#
formulating and enforcing appropriate building codes. 0<g<GQ(E
However, given the fact that the majority of the population {>@QJlE0
that is threatened by earthquakes is living in the third \yNQQ$B
world, it is clear that this cannot easily be realized. For LfEvc2
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these reasons, earthquake prediction is not only a scienti P+h6!=nD7
Þc problem: it also has a complex political dimension. !\^jt%e&
Key words Earthquakes á Forecasting á Hazard á risk á -I ?z-?<D
Decision making
