Abstract Earthquake prediction is an area of research ? 3ldHWa
of great scientiÞc and public fascination. The reason for >5Vv6_CI0?
this is not only that earthquakes can cause extremely wfH#E2+pk
large numbers of fatalities in a short time, but also uY]nqb
because earthquakes can have a large social and economic Gni<@;}
impact on society. Earthquake prediction in the Bob K>db
sense of making deterministic predictions about the #QdBI{2
place, time, and magnitude of earthquakes may very U8_<?Hd
well be fundamentally impossible. However, based on Y#3<w
a variety of data, earth scientists can make statements +an.z3?w
about the probability that earthquakes with a certain -3
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size will occur in a certain region over a speciÞed time 8^26g 3
period. In this context one speaks of ÔÔearthquake forecasting. -e H5s3:A
ÕÕ A number of methods to achieve this are presented. P PiN`GM
However, it is not obvious how society should T%kr&XsQX
respond to these forecasts. It is shown that there is a fundamental :f?};t+
dilemma for decision makers that statements of n_[;2XQQ
scientists concerning earthquake occurrence either contain uveby:d h
very speciÞc information but are very uncertain, or 0pT? qsM2
contain very general information but are very certain. U_ j\UQC
Earthquake hazard can to a large extent be reduced by
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formulating and enforcing appropriate building codes. AS[yNCsjC
However, given the fact that the majority of the population Kj| l]'
that is threatened by earthquakes is living in the third ^O_E
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world, it is clear that this cannot easily be realized. For M*|,05>
these reasons, earthquake prediction is not only a scienti *n $=2v^A
Þc problem: it also has a complex political dimension. )H &rr(
Key words Earthquakes á Forecasting á Hazard á risk á 2"`R_q
Decision making
