Abstract Earthquake prediction is an area of research =*>.z@WQ
of great scientiÞc and public fascination. The reason for HW'I $ .
this is not only that earthquakes can cause extremely f'`y-]"V5)
large numbers of fatalities in a short time, but also +Mn(s36f2
because earthquakes can have a large social and economic Nd@/U
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impact on society. Earthquake prediction in the rg
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sense of making deterministic predictions about the *#@{&Q(Qh
place, time, and magnitude of earthquakes may very {!wd5C@
well be fundamentally impossible. However, based on ,:V[H8 ?
a variety of data, earth scientists can make statements \8 v ZZ t
about the probability that earthquakes with a certain 1:./f |m
size will occur in a certain region over a speciÞed time M9(lxu y1
period. In this context one speaks of ÔÔearthquake forecasting. _G/uDP%
ÕÕ A number of methods to achieve this are presented. "+
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However, it is not obvious how society should +@7c:CAy(
respond to these forecasts. It is shown that there is a fundamental l <Z7bo
dilemma for decision makers that statements of 4X}TG
scientists concerning earthquake occurrence either contain M-F{I%Vx
very speciÞc information but are very uncertain, or MI.OOoP 3a
contain very general information but are very certain. KF! d?
Earthquake hazard can to a large extent be reduced by U_E t
formulating and enforcing appropriate building codes. h=n\c6 Q
However, given the fact that the majority of the population 4<5*HpW
that is threatened by earthquakes is living in the third -7J~^m2x
world, it is clear that this cannot easily be realized. For %rEP.T \i
these reasons, earthquake prediction is not only a scienti DiZv sc
Þc problem: it also has a complex political dimension. 9V IAOky-
Key words Earthquakes á Forecasting á Hazard á risk á #!_ViG )2^
Decision making
