Abstract Earthquake prediction is an area of research ?+byRoY>&g
of great scientiÞc and public fascination. The reason for v; s^j
this is not only that earthquakes can cause extremely j Oxnf%jl
large numbers of fatalities in a short time, but also 6 _#C vQ
because earthquakes can have a large social and economic 07vzVsQ}p
impact on society. Earthquake prediction in the $N4i)>&T2
sense of making deterministic predictions about the G;J!3A;TE
place, time, and magnitude of earthquakes may very
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well be fundamentally impossible. However, based on 4CxU
eq
a variety of data, earth scientists can make statements ZP<OyX?
about the probability that earthquakes with a certain 6PLdzZ{
size will occur in a certain region over a speciÞed time y# IUDnRJ
period. In this context one speaks of ÔÔearthquake forecasting. 8y]{I^ z}
ÕÕ A number of methods to achieve this are presented. GP=bp _L
However, it is not obvious how society should R`%O=S*]
respond to these forecasts. It is shown that there is a fundamental fs, >X!l+
dilemma for decision makers that statements of xv_Z$&9e>l
scientists concerning earthquake occurrence either contain <,&t}7M/:
very speciÞc information but are very uncertain, or ~01t_Xp qc
contain very general information but are very certain. Aj"fkY|Q
Earthquake hazard can to a large extent be reduced by b Kr73S9
formulating and enforcing appropriate building codes. i > BQRbU
However, given the fact that the majority of the population p<Vj<6.=?
that is threatened by earthquakes is living in the third yY80E[v
world, it is clear that this cannot easily be realized. For p7,dl *'
these reasons, earthquake prediction is not only a scienti "iuNYM5 P
Þc problem: it also has a complex political dimension. F^c u!-L
Key words Earthquakes á Forecasting á Hazard á risk á z+j3j2
Decision making
