Abstract Earthquake prediction is an area of research >q(6,Mmb
of great scientiÞc and public fascination. The reason for b5 Q NEi
this is not only that earthquakes can cause extremely |:2c$zq
large numbers of fatalities in a short time, but also eXzXd*$S
because earthquakes can have a large social and economic W_ <4WG
impact on society. Earthquake prediction in the ;KcFy@ 6q5
sense of making deterministic predictions about the iBvOJs
place, time, and magnitude of earthquakes may very ?`P2'i<b
well be fundamentally impossible. However, based on ;<-7*}Dj
a variety of data, earth scientists can make statements F6dr
about the probability that earthquakes with a certain s4t0f_vj`
size will occur in a certain region over a speciÞed time gdi`x|0
period. In this context one speaks of ÔÔearthquake forecasting. E`AYe e%l
ÕÕ A number of methods to achieve this are presented. xzk }[3P{
However, it is not obvious how society should "ahvNx;x
respond to these forecasts. It is shown that there is a fundamental l3J$md|f
dilemma for decision makers that statements of Qpu3(`d<
scientists concerning earthquake occurrence either contain ;~/4 d -
very speciÞc information but are very uncertain, or 'ZnIRE,N
contain very general information but are very certain. -p8e
Earthquake hazard can to a large extent be reduced by 5"=:#zN
formulating and enforcing appropriate building codes. ~A >o O-0K
However, given the fact that the majority of the population E`xU m9F
that is threatened by earthquakes is living in the third \ 4gXY$` @
world, it is clear that this cannot easily be realized. For r_2b tpL^
these reasons, earthquake prediction is not only a scienti gq 4 . d
Þc problem: it also has a complex political dimension. zj20;5o>U&
Key words Earthquakes á Forecasting á Hazard á risk á iJP{|-h
Decision making
