Abstract Earthquake prediction is an area of research O=K0 KOj
of great scientiÞc and public fascination. The reason for 13@e mb
this is not only that earthquakes can cause extremely b0 }dy\dnQ
large numbers of fatalities in a short time, but also h7eb/xEto
because earthquakes can have a large social and economic ,tXI*R
impact on society. Earthquake prediction in the j~ b NH~3
sense of making deterministic predictions about the \6AM?}v
place, time, and magnitude of earthquakes may very !}}
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well be fundamentally impossible. However, based on :H>I`)bw
a variety of data, earth scientists can make statements hvI#D>Z!Yp
about the probability that earthquakes with a certain m B L? 2~M
size will occur in a certain region over a speciÞed time *lDVV,T'}w
period. In this context one speaks of ÔÔearthquake forecasting. %S%UMA.
ÕÕ A number of methods to achieve this are presented. GN(,` y
However, it is not obvious how society should fx>QP?Z
respond to these forecasts. It is shown that there is a fundamental {yNeZXA>
dilemma for decision makers that statements of dOaOWMrfdf
scientists concerning earthquake occurrence either contain )W_akU L
very speciÞc information but are very uncertain, or zSA"f_ e
contain very general information but are very certain. `j {q
Earthquake hazard can to a large extent be reduced by ~"*W;| )
formulating and enforcing appropriate building codes. \E c*Gq?.
However, given the fact that the majority of the population [$} \Gv
that is threatened by earthquakes is living in the third zZd.U\"2
world, it is clear that this cannot easily be realized. For w.rcY ywI
these reasons, earthquake prediction is not only a scienti "P c}-&
Þc problem: it also has a complex political dimension. |Fx *,91
Key words Earthquakes á Forecasting á Hazard á risk á (0@b4}Z
Decision making
