Abstract Earthquake prediction is an area of research `k
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of great scientiÞc and public fascination. The reason for 1Xu\Tm\Ux
this is not only that earthquakes can cause extremely Y3mATw 3Wh
large numbers of fatalities in a short time, but also ~Q0jz/#c
because earthquakes can have a large social and economic =S|SQz5%w
impact on society. Earthquake prediction in the 9fzbR ~s
sense of making deterministic predictions about the f+Pu t
place, time, and magnitude of earthquakes may very 9bNjC&:4/]
well be fundamentally impossible. However, based on $s)G0/~W
a variety of data, earth scientists can make statements <,`=m|z9k
about the probability that earthquakes with a certain R1&(VK {
size will occur in a certain region over a speciÞed time df&d+jY
period. In this context one speaks of ÔÔearthquake forecasting. ,*bI0mFZ
ÕÕ A number of methods to achieve this are presented. q/XZb@rt
However, it is not obvious how society should zX{ [Z
respond to these forecasts. It is shown that there is a fundamental 6}K|eUak/
dilemma for decision makers that statements of : \:jIP
scientists concerning earthquake occurrence either contain g(;t,Vy,I
very speciÞc information but are very uncertain, or *jCXH<?R
contain very general information but are very certain. 4u"V52
Earthquake hazard can to a large extent be reduced by rgRh ySud
formulating and enforcing appropriate building codes. OzA"i y
However, given the fact that the majority of the population U~ s&}M\n
that is threatened by earthquakes is living in the third Y"K7$+5#\
world, it is clear that this cannot easily be realized. For z<m,Xj4w
these reasons, earthquake prediction is not only a scienti 0^? 3hK
Þc problem: it also has a complex political dimension. ?Q]&d!U Cs
Key words Earthquakes á Forecasting á Hazard á risk á 8N'`kd~6[
Decision making
