Abstract Earthquake prediction is an area of research +PBl3
of great scientiÞc and public fascination. The reason for cGs& Kn;h
this is not only that earthquakes can cause extremely PE;<0Cz\
large numbers of fatalities in a short time, but also ){mqo%{SO
because earthquakes can have a large social and economic >'#vC]@
impact on society. Earthquake prediction in the P#3J@aRC
sense of making deterministic predictions about the Z; NaIJiL-
place, time, and magnitude of earthquakes may very o5Rv xGN
well be fundamentally impossible. However, based on Qn$YI9t
a variety of data, earth scientists can make statements (mbm',%- (
about the probability that earthquakes with a certain KtJc9dnX
size will occur in a certain region over a speciÞed time J>+\a1{
period. In this context one speaks of ÔÔearthquake forecasting. 6W:]'L4!
ÕÕ A number of methods to achieve this are presented. % dtn*NU
However, it is not obvious how society should 3rMi:*?
respond to these forecasts. It is shown that there is a fundamental \0Xq&CG=E
dilemma for decision makers that statements of -+i7T^@|
scientists concerning earthquake occurrence either contain %<+Ku11
very speciÞc information but are very uncertain, or <iH
contain very general information but are very certain. G/~b(V;>
Earthquake hazard can to a large extent be reduced by ^:$ShbX"P
formulating and enforcing appropriate building codes. R' 1 j
However, given the fact that the majority of the population cSv; HN:
that is threatened by earthquakes is living in the third B*)mHSs 2
world, it is clear that this cannot easily be realized. For ``]NB=N}{1
these reasons, earthquake prediction is not only a scienti hKh ad8
Þc problem: it also has a complex political dimension. 9s!R_R&W.
Key words Earthquakes á Forecasting á Hazard á risk á ; d f Izi
Decision making
