Abstract Earthquake prediction is an area of research &O5O@3:7]
of great scientiÞc and public fascination. The reason for J$U_/b.m k
this is not only that earthquakes can cause extremely )nGH$Mu
large numbers of fatalities in a short time, but also #5=W[+4eN
because earthquakes can have a large social and economic Q- 7L,2TL
impact on society. Earthquake prediction in the _\gCdNrD
sense of making deterministic predictions about the @*E= O |
place, time, and magnitude of earthquakes may very 6 rW b2b
well be fundamentally impossible. However, based on X/_89<&
a variety of data, earth scientists can make statements cua ( w
about the probability that earthquakes with a certain Ciy%7_~\
size will occur in a certain region over a speciÞed time XE]"RD<z
period. In this context one speaks of ÔÔearthquake forecasting. ]_j= { 0%
ÕÕ A number of methods to achieve this are presented. >Q=Q%~
However, it is not obvious how society should RT(ejkLZm
respond to these forecasts. It is shown that there is a fundamental uu.}<VM.1
dilemma for decision makers that statements of \EXa 9X2
scientists concerning earthquake occurrence either contain |\>Ifv% {
very speciÞc information but are very uncertain, or xE{slD l
contain very general information but are very certain. DYoGtks(
Earthquake hazard can to a large extent be reduced by I_ AFHrj
formulating and enforcing appropriate building codes. F'-XAI
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However, given the fact that the majority of the population kA> e*6
that is threatened by earthquakes is living in the third -Jf}3$Ra
world, it is clear that this cannot easily be realized. For iu A_ Jr
these reasons, earthquake prediction is not only a scienti f RT4>So
Þc problem: it also has a complex political dimension. }kF?9w
Key words Earthquakes á Forecasting á Hazard á risk á s\< @v7A
Decision making
