Abstract Earthquake prediction is an area of research yfEb
of great scientiÞc and public fascination. The reason for ;Lo&}U3F,!
this is not only that earthquakes can cause extremely RV+E^pkp$
large numbers of fatalities in a short time, but also cSK&[>i)4
because earthquakes can have a large social and economic u1Ek y/e-
impact on society. Earthquake prediction in the 0y~<%` ~
sense of making deterministic predictions about the c2 *`2qK#
place, time, and magnitude of earthquakes may very .VM 3D0aV
well be fundamentally impossible. However, based on !^y y0`k6
a variety of data, earth scientists can make statements ghAi{@s$)
about the probability that earthquakes with a certain jQ=~g-y
size will occur in a certain region over a speciÞed time UXH" si:
period. In this context one speaks of ÔÔearthquake forecasting. + 7U
ÕÕ A number of methods to achieve this are presented. P=`1 rjPE
However, it is not obvious how society should \?M f _
respond to these forecasts. It is shown that there is a fundamental !tXZ%BP. u
dilemma for decision makers that statements of [h&BAR/ 2
scientists concerning earthquake occurrence either contain /(? @mnq_
very speciÞc information but are very uncertain, or 7NL% $Vf
contain very general information but are very certain.
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Earthquake hazard can to a large extent be reduced by d-B7["z ,
formulating and enforcing appropriate building codes. 2r&R"B1`(
However, given the fact that the majority of the population lw[e *q{s.
that is threatened by earthquakes is living in the third _w(ln9
world, it is clear that this cannot easily be realized. For P`jL]x
these reasons, earthquake prediction is not only a scienti xx)-d,S
Þc problem: it also has a complex political dimension. {Dr@HP/x=s
Key words Earthquakes á Forecasting á Hazard á risk á 0 [8=c&F
Decision making
