Abstract Earthquake prediction is an area of research `,Q
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of great scientiÞc and public fascination. The reason for a* 6x^R;)
this is not only that earthquakes can cause extremely TLl*gED
large numbers of fatalities in a short time, but also C78YHjy
because earthquakes can have a large social and economic fyT:I6*
impact on society. Earthquake prediction in the `Z>4}<~+
sense of making deterministic predictions about the 8Z :NT_Ss
place, time, and magnitude of earthquakes may very :}FMauHh
well be fundamentally impossible. However, based on uu1 -` !%
a variety of data, earth scientists can make statements #J eZA0r5
about the probability that earthquakes with a certain ${ad[hs
size will occur in a certain region over a speciÞed time soA>&b !?
period. In this context one speaks of ÔÔearthquake forecasting. YN9ug3O+
ÕÕ A number of methods to achieve this are presented. I<z
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However, it is not obvious how society should CT3wd?)z`
respond to these forecasts. It is shown that there is a fundamental IfeG"ua|
dilemma for decision makers that statements of J:)Q)MT24:
scientists concerning earthquake occurrence either contain .VuZ=
very speciÞc information but are very uncertain, or -7TT6+H)
contain very general information but are very certain. o;M"C[
Earthquake hazard can to a large extent be reduced by :,y V?E6]
formulating and enforcing appropriate building codes. _;W}_p}q{
However, given the fact that the majority of the population q0 jzng
that is threatened by earthquakes is living in the third #* j
world, it is clear that this cannot easily be realized. For C0z E<fl
these reasons, earthquake prediction is not only a scienti cG6Q$
Þc problem: it also has a complex political dimension. 1C^6' 9o
Key words Earthquakes á Forecasting á Hazard á risk á :)t1 >y>3
Decision making
