Abstract Earthquake prediction is an area of research j#HXuV6
of great scientiÞc and public fascination. The reason for E0HqX d?
this is not only that earthquakes can cause extremely (* -wiL
large numbers of fatalities in a short time, but also .jrNi=BP*
because earthquakes can have a large social and economic os V6 =
impact on society. Earthquake prediction in the G|i0n
sense of making deterministic predictions about the GT{4L]C
place, time, and magnitude of earthquakes may very ~id6^#&>
well be fundamentally impossible. However, based on /A_:`MAZ
a variety of data, earth scientists can make statements A#U! KX
about the probability that earthquakes with a certain r" H::A
size will occur in a certain region over a speciÞed time Koa9W >!
period. In this context one speaks of ÔÔearthquake forecasting. D s1 h18
ÕÕ A number of methods to achieve this are presented. U%3N=M
However, it is not obvious how society should A U~DbU0O
respond to these forecasts. It is shown that there is a fundamental /$^Tou/v
dilemma for decision makers that statements of (
eV,f
scientists concerning earthquake occurrence either contain :X>Wd+lY:_
very speciÞc information but are very uncertain, or '/ Aq2
contain very general information but are very certain. +Z`=iia>
Earthquake hazard can to a large extent be reduced by @@d_F<Ym[
formulating and enforcing appropriate building codes. y6(PG:L
However, given the fact that the majority of the population Rv1W &s&
that is threatened by earthquakes is living in the third
]jT}]9Q$
world, it is clear that this cannot easily be realized. For z?/_b
these reasons, earthquake prediction is not only a scienti fQ+wh G B
Þc problem: it also has a complex political dimension. K3&xe(
Key words Earthquakes á Forecasting á Hazard á risk á 6?Ncgj
&@
Decision making
