Abstract Earthquake prediction is an area of research E.bi05l
of great scientiÞc and public fascination. The reason for bvBHYf:^
this is not only that earthquakes can cause extremely g| <wyt[
large numbers of fatalities in a short time, but also PCrU<J 7
because earthquakes can have a large social and economic {XurC}#\
impact on society. Earthquake prediction in the !9iGg*0dx
sense of making deterministic predictions about the BP[|n L
place, time, and magnitude of earthquakes may very /$N~O1"0)
well be fundamentally impossible. However, based on 3riw1r;Q
a variety of data, earth scientists can make statements WG71k8af
about the probability that earthquakes with a certain UYP9c}_,4
size will occur in a certain region over a speciÞed time \G@wp5
period. In this context one speaks of ÔÔearthquake forecasting. YcX/{L[9o
ÕÕ A number of methods to achieve this are presented.
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However, it is not obvious how society should -Y 9SngxM
respond to these forecasts. It is shown that there is a fundamental J8a*s`ik
dilemma for decision makers that statements of "Ml&[O ge
scientists concerning earthquake occurrence either contain az;Q"V'6
very speciÞc information but are very uncertain, or `Mj}md;O"
contain very general information but are very certain. oEz%={f
Earthquake hazard can to a large extent be reduced by e-hjC6Q U
formulating and enforcing appropriate building codes. /t<@"BoV
However, given the fact that the majority of the population a& {X!:X
that is threatened by earthquakes is living in the third `/&SxQB<
world, it is clear that this cannot easily be realized. For oB1> x^
these reasons, earthquake prediction is not only a scienti Z;Rp+ X
Þc problem: it also has a complex political dimension. gR^>3n'
Key words Earthquakes á Forecasting á Hazard á risk á U5HKRO
Decision making
