Abstract Earthquake prediction is an area of research z--Y
of great scientiÞc and public fascination. The reason for I"2*}v|
this is not only that earthquakes can cause extremely ? dAy_|
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large numbers of fatalities in a short time, but also 6=g! Hs{
because earthquakes can have a large social and economic -$cO0RSY
impact on society. Earthquake prediction in the V&J'2Lq
sense of making deterministic predictions about the 5O"$'iL
place, time, and magnitude of earthquakes may very i^"!"&tW#
well be fundamentally impossible. However, based on
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a variety of data, earth scientists can make statements O c%W_Gb7
about the probability that earthquakes with a certain &/-}`hIAT
size will occur in a certain region over a speciÞed time i@#=Rx p
period. In this context one speaks of ÔÔearthquake forecasting. U,7}VdO
ÕÕ A number of methods to achieve this are presented. j},3@TFh
However, it is not obvious how society should P$*9Z@
respond to these forecasts. It is shown that there is a fundamental &ZI-#(P
dilemma for decision makers that statements of |a>,FZv8e
scientists concerning earthquake occurrence either contain &r1]A&
very speciÞc information but are very uncertain, or ;]^% 6B n
contain very general information but are very certain. O*ER3
Earthquake hazard can to a large extent be reduced by dnCurWjdk
formulating and enforcing appropriate building codes. sk7 ]s7
However, given the fact that the majority of the population cng166}1A
that is threatened by earthquakes is living in the third E$USam
world, it is clear that this cannot easily be realized. For EfGy^`, 'G
these reasons, earthquake prediction is not only a scienti WM9z~z'2a
Þc problem: it also has a complex political dimension. \U.js-
Key words Earthquakes á Forecasting á Hazard á risk á EM,= R
Decision making
