Abstract Earthquake prediction is an area of research m ?)k&{I
of great scientiÞc and public fascination. The reason for \H&8.<HJ
this is not only that earthquakes can cause extremely 9$~a&lXO5
large numbers of fatalities in a short time, but also l(~i>iQ
4
because earthquakes can have a large social and economic awC:{5R8v
impact on society. Earthquake prediction in the (H[ .\O-`
sense of making deterministic predictions about the K6BP~ @H_D
place, time, and magnitude of earthquakes may very O_S%PX
well be fundamentally impossible. However, based on G*y!
Q
a variety of data, earth scientists can make statements g##yR/L
about the probability that earthquakes with a certain 50E?K!
size will occur in a certain region over a speciÞed time QT<\E`v
period. In this context one speaks of ÔÔearthquake forecasting. l>t0 H($
ÕÕ A number of methods to achieve this are presented. f6$ $e+
However, it is not obvious how society should *mVQN1
respond to these forecasts. It is shown that there is a fundamental GxynLXWo>
dilemma for decision makers that statements of q4xP<b^
scientists concerning earthquake occurrence either contain 7A=* 3
very speciÞc information but are very uncertain, or Quts~Q
contain very general information but are very certain. ]iq2_{q
Earthquake hazard can to a large extent be reduced by pPD }>q
formulating and enforcing appropriate building codes. 8aMmz!S
However, given the fact that the majority of the population xj#anr
that is threatened by earthquakes is living in the third cxig <W
world, it is clear that this cannot easily be realized. For R5b!Ao
these reasons, earthquake prediction is not only a scienti uH.1'bR?a
Þc problem: it also has a complex political dimension.
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Key words Earthquakes á Forecasting á Hazard á risk á ?LAiSg=eq
Decision making
