Abstract Earthquake prediction is an area of research rw%OA4>
of great scientiÞc and public fascination. The reason for XGAR8= tic
this is not only that earthquakes can cause extremely $k^&
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large numbers of fatalities in a short time, but also grE'ySX0
because earthquakes can have a large social and economic eA-$TSWh
impact on society. Earthquake prediction in the ;CDa*(e
sense of making deterministic predictions about the o,!W,sx_
place, time, and magnitude of earthquakes may very ~ep^S^V+
well be fundamentally impossible. However, based on / ! aVv
a variety of data, earth scientists can make statements +HEL ^
about the probability that earthquakes with a certain =U}!+ 8f
size will occur in a certain region over a speciÞed time ,'byJlw_pv
period. In this context one speaks of ÔÔearthquake forecasting. ; ! B>b)%
ÕÕ A number of methods to achieve this are presented. $KPf[JvQ
However, it is not obvious how society should s]Z++Lh<{
respond to these forecasts. It is shown that there is a fundamental %<\t N^rP
dilemma for decision makers that statements of ql7N\COoq
scientists concerning earthquake occurrence either contain y$+_9VzYB
very speciÞc information but are very uncertain, or t;W'<.m_
contain very general information but are very certain. q3ebps9^
Earthquake hazard can to a large extent be reduced by Q+p 9 ^_r
formulating and enforcing appropriate building codes. @5{h+ ^
However, given the fact that the majority of the population tS[%C)
that is threatened by earthquakes is living in the third D
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world, it is clear that this cannot easily be realized. For p~z\&&0U0
these reasons, earthquake prediction is not only a scienti 9s#*~[E*
Þc problem: it also has a complex political dimension. GRAPv|u9[
Key words Earthquakes á Forecasting á Hazard á risk á ggUw4w/e
Decision making
