Abstract Earthquake prediction is an area of research QjpJIw
of great scientiÞc and public fascination. The reason for [\Aws^fD_
this is not only that earthquakes can cause extremely +[i r7?Y.
large numbers of fatalities in a short time, but also Imzh`SI,
because earthquakes can have a large social and economic ^P [#YO
impact on society. Earthquake prediction in the ?AxB0d9z
sense of making deterministic predictions about the oLlfqV,|L\
place, time, and magnitude of earthquakes may very C. uv0
well be fundamentally impossible. However, based on ]1GyEr:
a variety of data, earth scientists can make statements _M;{}!Gc&A
about the probability that earthquakes with a certain Jk|DWZ
size will occur in a certain region over a speciÞed time
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period. In this context one speaks of ÔÔearthquake forecasting. o(v7&m;
ÕÕ A number of methods to achieve this are presented. 8>vNa
However, it is not obvious how society should dKDCJ t]t
respond to these forecasts. It is shown that there is a fundamental {uZ|Oog(p
dilemma for decision makers that statements of u0? TMy.%
scientists concerning earthquake occurrence either contain %O[1yZh
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very speciÞc information but are very uncertain, or c-.F {~
contain very general information but are very certain. "k"+qR`fH
Earthquake hazard can to a large extent be reduced by "[z/\l8 O
formulating and enforcing appropriate building codes. /s(PFN8#Y
However, given the fact that the majority of the population 0? I
that is threatened by earthquakes is living in the third n2c(x\DA&
world, it is clear that this cannot easily be realized. For Xooh00
these reasons, earthquake prediction is not only a scienti ( <OmYnm
Þc problem: it also has a complex political dimension. i[.7 8K-s
Key words Earthquakes á Forecasting á Hazard á risk á T51oNO%^
Decision making
