Abstract Earthquake prediction is an area of research ^3&-!<*
of great scientiÞc and public fascination. The reason for fb]=MoiJ
this is not only that earthquakes can cause extremely DqH]F S?]
large numbers of fatalities in a short time, but also ' #r^W2
because earthquakes can have a large social and economic Wu?[1L: x
impact on society. Earthquake prediction in the a- /p/
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sense of making deterministic predictions about the h=cA]^:=
place, time, and magnitude of earthquakes may very ijNI6_eU
well be fundamentally impossible. However, based on Fw#wVs)@:
a variety of data, earth scientists can make statements 4=ha$3h$
about the probability that earthquakes with a certain xNVSWi,
size will occur in a certain region over a speciÞed time Z!?T &:
period. In this context one speaks of ÔÔearthquake forecasting. ]G~u8HPH!m
ÕÕ A number of methods to achieve this are presented. Iak06E
However, it is not obvious how society should j1@PfKh
respond to these forecasts. It is shown that there is a fundamental xUs1-O1i
dilemma for decision makers that statements of toox`|
scientists concerning earthquake occurrence either contain H#`&!p
very speciÞc information but are very uncertain, or Im`R2_( ]
contain very general information but are very certain. j]9,yi
Earthquake hazard can to a large extent be reduced by ~r]$(V n
formulating and enforcing appropriate building codes. Bm^8"SSN
However, given the fact that the majority of the population J:;nN-\j
that is threatened by earthquakes is living in the third 6`'K M/
world, it is clear that this cannot easily be realized. For # b= *hi`E
these reasons, earthquake prediction is not only a scienti kdm@1x
Þc problem: it also has a complex political dimension. xiQd[[(sM
Key words Earthquakes á Forecasting á Hazard á risk á 7sJGB^vM
Decision making
