[热点讨论]地震预测：是个政治问题？ [复制链接]

地震预报是重点也是难点，到目前也没什么突破。

引用第3楼dipi8701于2008-05-19 15:00发表的  : ;3 dM@>5[  
是啊，最好直接上内容好了，没必要非的下载才能看啊

?M]u$Te/.  
支持

Abstract Earthquake prediction is an area of research rSbQ}O4V  
of great scientiÞc and public fascination. The reason for MKe *f%  
this is not only that earthquakes can cause extremely 6iyt2qkh  
large numbers of fatalities in a short time, but also Lm.Ik
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because earthquakes can have a large social and economic xNx`J@xt$  
impact on society. Earthquake prediction in the hN}5u"pS  
sense of making deterministic predictions about the <@%ma2  
place, time, and magnitude of earthquakes may very z(r"JNO@  
well be fundamentally impossible. However, based on 8m \;P  
a variety of data, earth scientists can make statements ]svw CPu C  
about the probability that earthquakes with a certain wV?[3bEhM  
size will occur in a certain region over a speciÞed time >7
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period. In this context one speaks of ÔÔearthquake forecasting. h4hd<,  
ÕÕ A number of methods to achieve this are presented. DSTx#*  
However, it is not obvious how society should ![j(o!6&  
respond to these forecasts. It is shown that there is a fundamental s7AI:Zv  
dilemma for decision makers that statements of |:}L<9Sq  
scientists concerning earthquake occurrence either contain %K`4k.gN  
very speciÞc information but are very uncertain, or eNivlJ,K|@  
contain very general information but are very certain. w[|y0jtw  
Earthquake hazard can to a large extent be reduced by <%(f9j  
formulating and enforcing appropriate building codes. r*>QT:sB  
However, given the fact that the majority of the population i'9eKO  
that is threatened by earthquakes is living in the third |B,dEx/uU  
world, it is clear that this cannot easily be realized. For 7~L|;^(  
these reasons, earthquake prediction is not only a scienti |})rt5|f1!  
Þc problem: it also has a complex political dimension. np= J:v4  
Key words Earthquakes á Forecasting á Hazard á risk á ,qYf#fU#7  
Decision making

R. Snieder á T. van Eck % ghJ*iHR  
Earthquake prediction: a political problem? -IGMl_s  
Key words Earthquakes á Forecasting á Hazard á risk á Scf.4~H 0  
Decision making

英文不懂啊  

地震预测：是个政治问题？——非常敏感的问题！支持一下！！

 

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