Abstract Earthquake prediction is an area of research dnkHx
of great scientiÞc and public fascination. The reason for $.4N@=s,?c
this is not only that earthquakes can cause extremely _%(.OR
large numbers of fatalities in a short time, but also ha7mXGN%
because earthquakes can have a large social and economic 8Z 3:jSgk
impact on society. Earthquake prediction in the p!K^Q3kO
sense of making deterministic predictions about the K9 +\Z
place, time, and magnitude of earthquakes may very B_>r|^Vh
well be fundamentally impossible. However, based on v7,- Q*
a variety of data, earth scientists can make statements g!^me wtd
about the probability that earthquakes with a certain w!-MMT4y
size will occur in a certain region over a speciÞed time L. 8`5<ITw
period. In this context one speaks of ÔÔearthquake forecasting. 6VLo4bq 5
ÕÕ A number of methods to achieve this are presented. uw(Ml=
However, it is not obvious how society should *'@ sm*
respond to these forecasts. It is shown that there is a fundamental Ok<,_yh
dilemma for decision makers that statements of [}dPn61
scientists concerning earthquake occurrence either contain v>_83P`
very speciÞc information but are very uncertain, or ll*Ez"
contain very general information but are very certain. 8~3I^I_v
Earthquake hazard can to a large extent be reduced by }:(;mW8
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formulating and enforcing appropriate building codes. ;7*T6~ tv
However, given the fact that the majority of the population 3AAciMq}
that is threatened by earthquakes is living in the third HhwAzk/G~
world, it is clear that this cannot easily be realized. For 2 a*+mw
these reasons, earthquake prediction is not only a scienti X$_pDF&\z
Þc problem: it also has a complex political dimension. MeV*]*
Key words Earthquakes á Forecasting á Hazard á risk á S3&n?\CO:
Decision making
