Abstract Earthquake prediction is an area of research 3+d_5l;m)
of great scientiÞc and public fascination. The reason for 0
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this is not only that earthquakes can cause extremely UCL aCt -
large numbers of fatalities in a short time, but also F2Nb]f
because earthquakes can have a large social and economic
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impact on society. Earthquake prediction in the MO-)j_o-Z
sense of making deterministic predictions about the Y!nxHRE
place, time, and magnitude of earthquakes may very k-X E|v
well be fundamentally impossible. However, based on ! C|VX,w
a variety of data, earth scientists can make statements b@m\ca
about the probability that earthquakes with a certain |Y|g T*v
size will occur in a certain region over a speciÞed time -3T~+
period. In this context one speaks of ÔÔearthquake forecasting. c0Oc-,6J
ÕÕ A number of methods to achieve this are presented. Sz#dld Mz
However, it is not obvious how society should j_Q kw ?
respond to these forecasts. It is shown that there is a fundamental J rm 9,7/
dilemma for decision makers that statements of
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scientists concerning earthquake occurrence either contain X0e#w?
very speciÞc information but are very uncertain, or 9>1Gj-S2:
contain very general information but are very certain. bj`mQMC
Earthquake hazard can to a large extent be reduced by 5*IfI+}
formulating and enforcing appropriate building codes. jce^Xf
However, given the fact that the majority of the population uSU[Y,'x
that is threatened by earthquakes is living in the third B?p18u$i#l
world, it is clear that this cannot easily be realized. For | A% Jx __
these reasons, earthquake prediction is not only a scienti Yk!TQY4
Þc problem: it also has a complex political dimension. x9s1Az M{
Key words Earthquakes á Forecasting á Hazard á risk á } J-+^
Decision making
