Abstract Earthquake prediction is an area of research b3>zdS]Q
of great scientiÞc and public fascination. The reason for 2C:u)}R7D
this is not only that earthquakes can cause extremely l+2NA4s
large numbers of fatalities in a short time, but also Zx{ Sxv"
because earthquakes can have a large social and economic qVfn(rZ
impact on society. Earthquake prediction in the \`~YW<D
sense of making deterministic predictions about the HM)D/CO ,?
place, time, and magnitude of earthquakes may very %+Nng<_U\T
well be fundamentally impossible. However, based on E]n]_{BN]
a variety of data, earth scientists can make statements 64U|]g d$
about the probability that earthquakes with a certain .>TG{>sH
size will occur in a certain region over a speciÞed time ^ICSh8C
period. In this context one speaks of ÔÔearthquake forecasting. z 0+ JMZ/
ÕÕ A number of methods to achieve this are presented. h&L-G j
However, it is not obvious how society should g9 ^\Q Yh!
respond to these forecasts. It is shown that there is a fundamental `!N}u
dilemma for decision makers that statements of r@r*|50
scientists concerning earthquake occurrence either contain y{3+Un
very speciÞc information but are very uncertain, or ^(+q 1 O'
contain very general information but are very certain. R3og]=uFzm
Earthquake hazard can to a large extent be reduced by /# Jvt
formulating and enforcing appropriate building codes. 0^V<,CAV
However, given the fact that the majority of the population 1- ^D2B[-
that is threatened by earthquakes is living in the third 7NT}
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world, it is clear that this cannot easily be realized. For y[l{
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these reasons, earthquake prediction is not only a scienti s|XWw<Sa
Þc problem: it also has a complex political dimension. I>nYI|o1
Key words Earthquakes á Forecasting á Hazard á risk á ZJWpb
Decision making
