Abstract Earthquake prediction is an area of research >d#3|;RY
of great scientiÞc and public fascination. The reason for Sg _O?.r
this is not only that earthquakes can cause extremely 7"#f!. E
large numbers of fatalities in a short time, but also B4I BuS
because earthquakes can have a large social and economic u
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impact on society. Earthquake prediction in the @`6 }`k
sense of making deterministic predictions about the (nq^\ZdF
place, time, and magnitude of earthquakes may very Cpe #[mE
well be fundamentally impossible. However, based on ;e d#+$Na
a variety of data, earth scientists can make statements
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about the probability that earthquakes with a certain >:A<"wZ
size will occur in a certain region over a speciÞed time t-x[ :i
period. In this context one speaks of ÔÔearthquake forecasting. "sD1T3!\)Q
ÕÕ A number of methods to achieve this are presented. dIvy!d2l
However, it is not obvious how society should pp<E))&R
respond to these forecasts. It is shown that there is a fundamental c+~ Lp SQ
dilemma for decision makers that statements of =x1Wii$`
scientists concerning earthquake occurrence either contain Z/gsCYS3F
very speciÞc information but are very uncertain, or bf1)M>g,O
contain very general information but are very certain. F.68iN }
Earthquake hazard can to a large extent be reduced by Y K Y2Cw
formulating and enforcing appropriate building codes.
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However, given the fact that the majority of the population ]W;:|/ ,c
that is threatened by earthquakes is living in the third 1 & |
world, it is clear that this cannot easily be realized. For CG.,/] _
these reasons, earthquake prediction is not only a scienti C!5I?z&
Þc problem: it also has a complex political dimension. z{=v)F5y
Key words Earthquakes á Forecasting á Hazard á risk á _H8*ReFG
Decision making
