Abstract Earthquake prediction is an area of research \!>3SKs(e
of great scientiÞc and public fascination. The reason for bW$J~ ynM
this is not only that earthquakes can cause extremely kB3H="3 [[
large numbers of fatalities in a short time, but also cU;iUf
because earthquakes can have a large social and economic YwteZSbp6M
impact on society. Earthquake prediction in the 3
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sense of making deterministic predictions about the `Zf^E
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place, time, and magnitude of earthquakes may very F=`AY^u0
well be fundamentally impossible. However, based on ~$ng^ D
a variety of data, earth scientists can make statements >Nvjl~o5
about the probability that earthquakes with a certain K!:azP,bZ
size will occur in a certain region over a speciÞed time 6""G,"B
period. In this context one speaks of ÔÔearthquake forecasting. ?6Jx@ Sh
ÕÕ A number of methods to achieve this are presented. C3eR)Yh
However, it is not obvious how society should NYE` Kin-
respond to these forecasts. It is shown that there is a fundamental }x@2]juJ
dilemma for decision makers that statements of Xa CX!Lr,
scientists concerning earthquake occurrence either contain pv*,gSS
very speciÞc information but are very uncertain, or PRr2F-!P
contain very general information but are very certain. Y' yH;M z
Earthquake hazard can to a large extent be reduced by J!0DR4=Xi
formulating and enforcing appropriate building codes. DKne'3pH
However, given the fact that the majority of the population !6BW@GeF]
that is threatened by earthquakes is living in the third hakKs.U|[
world, it is clear that this cannot easily be realized. For :ZTc7 }
these reasons, earthquake prediction is not only a scienti vu|n<
Þc problem: it also has a complex political dimension. W"zab
Key words Earthquakes á Forecasting á Hazard á risk á u\ #"L
Decision making
