Abstract Earthquake prediction is an area of research N:j, 9p0,
of great scientiÞc and public fascination. The reason for Uq:WW1=kh
this is not only that earthquakes can cause extremely G% |$3
large numbers of fatalities in a short time, but also eDh]uKg
because earthquakes can have a large social and economic IMKyFp]h-
impact on society. Earthquake prediction in the _(K )(&
sense of making deterministic predictions about the Aj854 L(!
place, time, and magnitude of earthquakes may very -VqZw&"
well be fundamentally impossible. However, based on tai=2,'
a variety of data, earth scientists can make statements g[Z$\A?ZbZ
about the probability that earthquakes with a certain #Sxk[[KwH*
size will occur in a certain region over a speciÞed time cjf 8N:4N0
period. In this context one speaks of ÔÔearthquake forecasting. .l| [e
ÕÕ A number of methods to achieve this are presented. ^PnXnH?
However, it is not obvious how society should r\OunGUP
respond to these forecasts. It is shown that there is a fundamental ,cgFdOM.
dilemma for decision makers that statements of e;+6U"Jx*
scientists concerning earthquake occurrence either contain MX@t[{ Gg9
very speciÞc information but are very uncertain, or eI+<^p_j2
contain very general information but are very certain. {`FkiB` i
Earthquake hazard can to a large extent be reduced by SXYH#p
formulating and enforcing appropriate building codes. ne]P -5 0
However, given the fact that the majority of the population c>_tV3TDA
that is threatened by earthquakes is living in the third k`l={f8C
world, it is clear that this cannot easily be realized. For emhI1
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these reasons, earthquake prediction is not only a scienti \~sc 6ho
Þc problem: it also has a complex political dimension. mv5=>Xc6
Key words Earthquakes á Forecasting á Hazard á risk á 64 )Fz}
Decision making
