Abstract Earthquake prediction is an area of research |l8=z*v<
of great scientiÞc and public fascination. The reason for t@ R[:n;+
this is not only that earthquakes can cause extremely 6HZtdRQF
large numbers of fatalities in a short time, but also n
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because earthquakes can have a large social and economic vYm-$KQ"o
impact on society. Earthquake prediction in the 1N(#4mE=
sense of making deterministic predictions about the lIS`_H}
place, time, and magnitude of earthquakes may very MlYm\x8{M
well be fundamentally impossible. However, based on zHA::6OgPN
a variety of data, earth scientists can make statements (1|wM+)"
about the probability that earthquakes with a certain R& t*x
size will occur in a certain region over a speciÞed time ^+Nd\t p
period. In this context one speaks of ÔÔearthquake forecasting. @Dfg6<0
ÕÕ A number of methods to achieve this are presented. D2}^TIg
However, it is not obvious how society should rX)&U4#[ m
respond to these forecasts. It is shown that there is a fundamental CPZ,sWg5
dilemma for decision makers that statements of mDz44XO
scientists concerning earthquake occurrence either contain Bc.de&Bxz_
very speciÞc information but are very uncertain, or b 9r QQS
contain very general information but are very certain. K?J_cnJ`
Earthquake hazard can to a large extent be reduced by ~58 8M
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formulating and enforcing appropriate building codes. Hk;;+ '-
However, given the fact that the majority of the population WYb}SI(E
that is threatened by earthquakes is living in the third W6T4Zsg
world, it is clear that this cannot easily be realized. For }Q4Vy
these reasons, earthquake prediction is not only a scienti
i=\)[;U
Þc problem: it also has a complex political dimension. ^7 \ kvW
Key words Earthquakes á Forecasting á Hazard á risk á i#>t<g` l
Decision making
