Abstract Earthquake prediction is an area of research =#/Kg_RKL
of great scientiÞc and public fascination. The reason for j)2I+[a oB
this is not only that earthquakes can cause extremely {nbT$3=Zt
large numbers of fatalities in a short time, but also Bb:C^CHIQm
because earthquakes can have a large social and economic W&=OtN
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impact on society. Earthquake prediction in the 4 Wp5[(bg
sense of making deterministic predictions about the UrHndnq M
place, time, and magnitude of earthquakes may very 'L7qf' R V
well be fundamentally impossible. However, based on =C2sl;7~*
a variety of data, earth scientists can make statements SIV !8mz
about the probability that earthquakes with a certain K Ax=C}9
size will occur in a certain region over a speciÞed time 0:`|T jf_
period. In this context one speaks of ÔÔearthquake forecasting. puJB&u"4L
ÕÕ A number of methods to achieve this are presented. KW (a@X
However, it is not obvious how society should >v %js!`f
respond to these forecasts. It is shown that there is a fundamental 0|RofL&o
dilemma for decision makers that statements of HeO:=OE~>
scientists concerning earthquake occurrence either contain O 5:bdt .
very speciÞc information but are very uncertain, or Km;}xke6
contain very general information but are very certain. h7 E~I
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Earthquake hazard can to a large extent be reduced by R!%nzL@e&`
formulating and enforcing appropriate building codes. g"Y _!)X
However, given the fact that the majority of the population
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that is threatened by earthquakes is living in the third _0jR({\
world, it is clear that this cannot easily be realized. For mwo:+^v(
these reasons, earthquake prediction is not only a scienti {G Jl<G1
Þc problem: it also has a complex political dimension. $'%GB $.
Key words Earthquakes á Forecasting á Hazard á risk á odSPl{. >d
Decision making
