Abstract Earthquake prediction is an area of research w\a#Bfcv
of great scientiÞc and public fascination. The reason for G{9y` ;
this is not only that earthquakes can cause extremely {0~ p" %*
large numbers of fatalities in a short time, but also [&&4lKC}u
because earthquakes can have a large social and economic $MR4jnTT
impact on society. Earthquake prediction in the %r!-*p<i|
sense of making deterministic predictions about the G#>nOB
place, time, and magnitude of earthquakes may very [o "@*kf
well be fundamentally impossible. However, based on T/nRc_I+^B
a variety of data, earth scientists can make statements V" z0]DP5~
about the probability that earthquakes with a certain W\.(~-(So
size will occur in a certain region over a speciÞed time mE1* F'0a
period. In this context one speaks of ÔÔearthquake forecasting. B:SRHd{*Wu
ÕÕ A number of methods to achieve this are presented. USY^
[@o[f
However, it is not obvious how society should -`JY] H
respond to these forecasts. It is shown that there is a fundamental :8FH{sqR
dilemma for decision makers that statements of [Pl$=[+
scientists concerning earthquake occurrence either contain -rBj-4 |"
very speciÞc information but are very uncertain, or "@_f>3z
contain very general information but are very certain. p_D)=Ef|&
Earthquake hazard can to a large extent be reduced by /nNHI34
formulating and enforcing appropriate building codes. y+_U6rv[
However, given the fact that the majority of the population ~drNlt9jf
that is threatened by earthquakes is living in the third z'o+3 zq^
world, it is clear that this cannot easily be realized. For \hV FK6
these reasons, earthquake prediction is not only a scienti lwlR"Z
Þc problem: it also has a complex political dimension. qIl@,8T
Key words Earthquakes á Forecasting á Hazard á risk á {1 mD(+pJ{
Decision making
