Abstract Earthquake prediction is an area of research 37jrWe6xwp
of great scientiÞc and public fascination. The reason for AKk&
this is not only that earthquakes can cause extremely `YMd0*
large numbers of fatalities in a short time, but also SdnO#J}{
because earthquakes can have a large social and economic GWWaH+F[h
impact on society. Earthquake prediction in the H(M{hfa|
sense of making deterministic predictions about the m"'`$ /_
place, time, and magnitude of earthquakes may very IAe/)
well be fundamentally impossible. However, based on qss )5a/x.
a variety of data, earth scientists can make statements C 'Y2kb
about the probability that earthquakes with a certain [U"/A1p
size will occur in a certain region over a speciÞed time Jm< uE]9
period. In this context one speaks of ÔÔearthquake forecasting. j PZpJ:
ÕÕ A number of methods to achieve this are presented. aS\$@41"
However, it is not obvious how society should ;mwnAO
respond to these forecasts. It is shown that there is a fundamental ?*7Mn`
dilemma for decision makers that statements of '^$+G0jv
scientists concerning earthquake occurrence either contain \.Op6ECV9
very speciÞc information but are very uncertain, or :IfwhI )
contain very general information but are very certain. SN\c 2^#
Earthquake hazard can to a large extent be reduced by SQx&4R.
formulating and enforcing appropriate building codes. K" X" 2c1o
However, given the fact that the majority of the population M,bs`amz
that is threatened by earthquakes is living in the third 5)h fI7{d
world, it is clear that this cannot easily be realized. For o?a 3hD
these reasons, earthquake prediction is not only a scienti N0NFgW ;
Þc problem: it also has a complex political dimension. Y B2gxZ
Key words Earthquakes á Forecasting á Hazard á risk á %so{'rQl
Decision making
