Abstract Earthquake prediction is an area of research GC$Hp!H
of great scientiÞc and public fascination. The reason for CbS9fc&
this is not only that earthquakes can cause extremely 9+=U&*
large numbers of fatalities in a short time, but also |? ?uVA)\X
because earthquakes can have a large social and economic sP5PYNspA
impact on society. Earthquake prediction in the lpve Yz
sense of making deterministic predictions about the YG?W8)T
place, time, and magnitude of earthquakes may very <JYV
G9s}
well be fundamentally impossible. However, based on 5H==m~
a variety of data, earth scientists can make statements :(A]Bm3
about the probability that earthquakes with a certain q(!191@C(
size will occur in a certain region over a speciÞed time 2={`g/WeE
period. In this context one speaks of ÔÔearthquake forecasting. 7Y @ &&
ÕÕ A number of methods to achieve this are presented. u;~/B[
However, it is not obvious how society should ]O7I7K
respond to these forecasts. It is shown that there is a fundamental sEe^:aSN
dilemma for decision makers that statements of ^"l>;.w
scientists concerning earthquake occurrence either contain !K(0)~u
very speciÞc information but are very uncertain, or tB}&-U|t[~
contain very general information but are very certain. ]_|qv1K6
Earthquake hazard can to a large extent be reduced by y| @[? B
formulating and enforcing appropriate building codes. O,9KhX+
However, given the fact that the majority of the population E+>Qpy
that is threatened by earthquakes is living in the third b V;R}3)
world, it is clear that this cannot easily be realized. For z{``v|K
these reasons, earthquake prediction is not only a scienti OMO.-p
Þc problem: it also has a complex political dimension. 6!Ji-' \"
Key words Earthquakes á Forecasting á Hazard á risk á u Dm=W36
Decision making
