大家从事岩土工程的都可以看看哦，看完以后总会有些体会的
Abstract
This paper first presents a brief overview of the way geotechnical engineering has developed over the last
century in association with a number of empirical, analytical and observational approaches. In order to
explore the need for fresh perspectives, improvements in existing approaches and the development of new
ones, it is necessary to consider the enormous challenges that the engineering profession will face in the
foreseeable future due to global developments. These include energy needs, climate change, rising sea
levels, rapid increase in population, depletion of resources (water and fossil fuels) and increasing proportion
of lands which are ill-suited for development and of foundation sites which are of poor or marginal
suitability. Geotechnical engineers must look beyond their narrow specialties and learn to take a holistic
perspective in assessing the problems and devising their solutions. Multi-disciplinary approaches, already
very desirable for geotechnical engineers, will increasingly become more important and even essential. The
widespread adoption and further development of versatile spatial tools such as Geographical Information
Systems (GIS) has to be encouraged and accelerated. Increasing consideration has to be given to the
consequences of geotechnical solutions for the environment and for related issues of sustainability. During
the last fifty years the emphasis for outcomes of analysis in many problems has changed from assessment of
the values of the conventional !(R)factor of safety!ˉo the assessment of !(R)reliability!ˉ under conditionof
uncertainty. Wider dissemination of the concepts of failure susceptibility within a probabilistic framework
is important. Qualitative and quantitative methods for the assessment and management of geotechnical
hazard and risk must be developed further and applied in a systematic manner. Relevant definitions of terms
must be further refined considering different contexts and situations. Acceptable and tolerable levels of
hazard and risk must be explored further. Future developments in some selected areas of geotechnical
engineering are considered briefly. The paper also considers the adequacy or otherwise of education and
training approaches for geotechnical engineers and explores the avenues of progress.
Key words: Geotechnical Engineering, Reliability, Hazard and Risk, Probability of Failure, Observational
approach, Uncertainty, Knowledge-based modeling, Geographical Information Systems, Climate change .
the last fifty years the emphasis for outcomes of analysis in many problems has changed from assessment of
the values of the conventional !(R)factor of safety!ˉo the assessment of !(R)reliability!ˉ under conditionof
uncertainty. Wider dissemination of the concepts of failure susceptibility within a probabilistic framework
is important. Qualitative and quantitative methods for the assessment and management of geotechnical
hazard and risk must be developed further and applied in a systematic manner. Relevant definitions of terms
must be further refined considering different contexts and situations. Acceptable and tolerable levels of
hazard and risk must be explored further. Future developments in some selected areas of geotechnical
engineering are considered briefly. The paper also considers the adequacy or otherwise of education and
training approaches for geotechnical engineers and explores the avenues of progress.
Key words: Geotechnical Engineering, Reliability, Hazard and Risk, Probability of Failure, Observational
approach, Uncertainty, Knowledge-based modeling, Geographical Information Systems, Climate change
