Abstract Earthquake prediction is an area of research y iO!ZT
of great scientiÞc and public fascination. The reason for :+NZW9_
this is not only that earthquakes can cause extremely _QBN/KE9
large numbers of fatalities in a short time, but also p.6C.2q~s]
because earthquakes can have a large social and economic ?g^42 IYG
impact on society. Earthquake prediction in the qmqWMLfC
sense of making deterministic predictions about the m0QE
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place, time, and magnitude of earthquakes may very 0 b6jGa
well be fundamentally impossible. However, based on O 7R IcU
a variety of data, earth scientists can make statements G2qv)7{l2
about the probability that earthquakes with a certain $9+|_[ ]v.
size will occur in a certain region over a speciÞed time J9eOBom8e<
period. In this context one speaks of ÔÔearthquake forecasting. q;Tdqv!Ju
ÕÕ A number of methods to achieve this are presented. YbtsJ
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However, it is not obvious how society should WD#
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respond to these forecasts. It is shown that there is a fundamental g xY6 M4
dilemma for decision makers that statements of 1/+d@s#t
scientists concerning earthquake occurrence either contain ]xC#XYE:dy
very speciÞc information but are very uncertain, or 9u R+
contain very general information but are very certain. w\,N}'G
Earthquake hazard can to a large extent be reduced by 3.+TM]RYN
formulating and enforcing appropriate building codes. \ne1Xu :hM
However, given the fact that the majority of the population .7&V@A7
that is threatened by earthquakes is living in the third g%Bh-O9\
world, it is clear that this cannot easily be realized. For dp #JvZb
these reasons, earthquake prediction is not only a scienti v e($l"T
Þc problem: it also has a complex political dimension. 7f|8SB
Key words Earthquakes á Forecasting á Hazard á risk á
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Decision making
