Abstract Earthquake prediction is an area of research Kn]c4h}@b5
of great scientiÞc and public fascination. The reason for \O"EK~x}/
this is not only that earthquakes can cause extremely p^G:h6|+|
large numbers of fatalities in a short time, but also `Gl@?9,i
because earthquakes can have a large social and economic bK)gB!
impact on society. Earthquake prediction in the ?i. ]|#{Z
sense of making deterministic predictions about the k1A64?p
place, time, and magnitude of earthquakes may very (6C%w)8'
well be fundamentally impossible. However, based on a95QDz
a variety of data, earth scientists can make statements FFT h}>>
about the probability that earthquakes with a certain S`LS/)
size will occur in a certain region over a speciÞed time @:'swO/\<
period. In this context one speaks of ÔÔearthquake forecasting. @v 1f)(N
ÕÕ A number of methods to achieve this are presented. p;S<WJv k
However, it is not obvious how society should KrQ8//Ih
respond to these forecasts. It is shown that there is a fundamental w[>/(R7im
dilemma for decision makers that statements of u vo2W!
scientists concerning earthquake occurrence either contain {+V1>6
very speciÞc information but are very uncertain, or C|kZT<,]
contain very general information but are very certain. * /S=9n0
Earthquake hazard can to a large extent be reduced by $-dz1}
formulating and enforcing appropriate building codes. r^uo7?gZ^
However, given the fact that the majority of the population 2
{lo
that is threatened by earthquakes is living in the third )~q@2^
world, it is clear that this cannot easily be realized. For l \= M'D
these reasons, earthquake prediction is not only a scienti u`l1
z Mk
Þc problem: it also has a complex political dimension. D`;Q?f C
Key words Earthquakes á Forecasting á Hazard á risk á %ZF6%m0S
Decision making
