Abstract Earthquake prediction is an area of research (-$ 5YKm
of great scientiÞc and public fascination. The reason for s g=G<50i
this is not only that earthquakes can cause extremely y7/4u-_c
large numbers of fatalities in a short time, but also +c /!R|h=S
because earthquakes can have a large social and economic ?;o0~][!
impact on society. Earthquake prediction in the :| 9vMM^$
sense of making deterministic predictions about the 4L,wBce;,t
place, time, and magnitude of earthquakes may very ;"cQ)=s9Y
well be fundamentally impossible. However, based on Vz0 (D
a variety of data, earth scientists can make statements @Y `Z3LiR$
about the probability that earthquakes with a certain D]_6OlIE#'
size will occur in a certain region over a speciÞed time pfZ[YC-
period. In this context one speaks of ÔÔearthquake forecasting. ~IYR&GEaUG
ÕÕ A number of methods to achieve this are presented. ^.:&ZsqV
However, it is not obvious how society should {XIpH r
respond to these forecasts. It is shown that there is a fundamental >>$L
vQ
dilemma for decision makers that statements of X'b3CS4
scientists concerning earthquake occurrence either contain ^1~lnD~0
very speciÞc information but are very uncertain, or Je|:\Qk
contain very general information but are very certain. ' ds2\gN
Earthquake hazard can to a large extent be reduced by ?GH/W#{o)
formulating and enforcing appropriate building codes. .u\$wJ9Ai
However, given the fact that the majority of the population x%s1)\^A
that is threatened by earthquakes is living in the third (.=ig
X
world, it is clear that this cannot easily be realized. For Qw5-/p=t
these reasons, earthquake prediction is not only a scienti {X<g93
Þc problem: it also has a complex political dimension. h[u@UGK%
Key words Earthquakes á Forecasting á Hazard á risk á j5D Cc,s
Decision making
