Abstract Earthquake prediction is an area of research # Y/ .%ch.
of great scientiÞc and public fascination. The reason for |-GmW SK_
this is not only that earthquakes can cause extremely `!rH 0 ]vy
large numbers of fatalities in a short time, but also 0vbiq
because earthquakes can have a large social and economic (;T$[ru`
impact on society. Earthquake prediction in the }<6xZy
sense of making deterministic predictions about the !g{9]"Z1T
place, time, and magnitude of earthquakes may very *&]x-p1m
well be fundamentally impossible. However, based on VDq4n;p1
a variety of data, earth scientists can make statements iTJSW
about the probability that earthquakes with a certain W|XTa
size will occur in a certain region over a speciÞed time T|dQY~n~
period. In this context one speaks of ÔÔearthquake forecasting. %upnXRzw
ÕÕ A number of methods to achieve this are presented. U+gOojRy{
However, it is not obvious how society should W!|A3V35\:
respond to these forecasts. It is shown that there is a fundamental o%_MTCANy
dilemma for decision makers that statements of $xqI3UaX
scientists concerning earthquake occurrence either contain `\LhEnIwu
very speciÞc information but are very uncertain, or 'w B 6-
contain very general information but are very certain. ^ {\gD23
Earthquake hazard can to a large extent be reduced by JbN@A X:%
formulating and enforcing appropriate building codes. 6) {jHnk)
However, given the fact that the majority of the population | d}f\a`
that is threatened by earthquakes is living in the third v).V&":
world, it is clear that this cannot easily be realized. For <8Y;9N|94!
these reasons, earthquake prediction is not only a scienti {?tK]g#
Þc problem: it also has a complex political dimension. >Hb>wlYR
Key words Earthquakes á Forecasting á Hazard á risk á 3";Rw9
Decision making
