Abstract Earthquake prediction is an area of research )gX7 qQ
of great scientiÞc and public fascination. The reason for !WT Z =|
this is not only that earthquakes can cause extremely ] lBe
large numbers of fatalities in a short time, but also :ik$@ 5wp
because earthquakes can have a large social and economic VV_Zrje
impact on society. Earthquake prediction in the l ~bjNhk
sense of making deterministic predictions about the M<Gr~RKmAn
place, time, and magnitude of earthquakes may very 4Sj;38F
.1
well be fundamentally impossible. However, based on l7{]jKJu e
a variety of data, earth scientists can make statements 2/*F}w/
about the probability that earthquakes with a certain @k<
e] @r
size will occur in a certain region over a speciÞed time XsH(8 -n0
period. In this context one speaks of ÔÔearthquake forecasting. <V> [H7
ÕÕ A number of methods to achieve this are presented. / mdPYV
However, it is not obvious how society should R1!F mZW8
respond to these forecasts. It is shown that there is a fundamental }JP0q
dilemma for decision makers that statements of jw P}{mi*
scientists concerning earthquake occurrence either contain trl:\m
very speciÞc information but are very uncertain, or $q"/q*ys
contain very general information but are very certain. \BRx dK'
Earthquake hazard can to a large extent be reduced by '7'*+sgi$
formulating and enforcing appropriate building codes. N }$$<i2o
However, given the fact that the majority of the population L&gC
that is threatened by earthquakes is living in the third xg dS]Sz
world, it is clear that this cannot easily be realized. For For`rfR
these reasons, earthquake prediction is not only a scienti |*G$ilu
Þc problem: it also has a complex political dimension. \t pJ
Key words Earthquakes á Forecasting á Hazard á risk á 2&e2/KEWR
Decision making
