SEISMIC HAZARD ASSESSMENT: PROBLEMS WITH CURRENT PRACTICE [复制链接]

This paper addresses issues with current practice in seismic hazard analysis and gives some lDXH<W?  
recommendations for improvements. A review of probabilistic and deterministic approaches is {,-#;A*yW  
given. The remainder of the paper is focused on PSHA. There continue to be hazard studies that f#+ h_1#  
do not properly treat the ground motion variability, leading to systematic underestimations of the C\[UAxZ3X  
hazard. Next, some of the short-comings in current PSHA practice that can be improved without U9s y]7  
major revisions to the overall methodology are discussed. These include selecting the bin size for YG|T;/-  
the deaggregation, use of Uniform Hazard Spectra, estimation of scenario spectra, estimation of %(6WrE5F6  
epistemic uncertainty, degree of spatial smoothing of seismicity, and the use of a strict lower XUHY.M  
bound magnitude. Finally, the future directions of PHSA are addressed. These include YKk%;U*  
incorporating site-specific site response into PSHA and taking project specific structure response 2:yv:7t/  
into account in conducting PHSA

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First European Conference on Earthquake Engineering and Seismology }j x{Cw  
(a joint event of the 13th ECEE & 30th General Assembly of the ESC) vnE,}(M  
Geneva, Switzerland, 3-8 September 2006 |dO1w.x/  
Paper Number: Keynote Address K2 ygHNAQG~  
SEISMIC HAZARD ASSESSMENT: PROBLEMS WITH CURRENT PRACTICE Y|",.~  
AND FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS HDYoM  
Norman ABRAHAMSON1 :hr%iu  
SUMMARY \VW.>@s~  
This paper addresses issues with current practice in seismic hazard analysis and gives some b.F2m(e2  
recommendations for improvements. A review of probabilistic and deterministic approaches is U}NNbGQj  
given. The remainder of the paper is focused on PSHA. There continue to be hazard studies that '(?@R5a  
do not properly treat the ground motion variability, leading to systematic underestimations of the 1-`8v[S  
hazard. Next, some of the short-comings in current PSHA practice that can be improved without xZhh%~  
major revisions to the overall methodology are discussed. These include selecting the bin size for xJ4T7 )*  
the deaggregation, use of Uniform Hazard Spectra, estimation of scenario spectra, estimation of <5 okwcJ^  
epistemic uncertainty, degree of spatial smoothing of seismicity, and the use of a strict lower "qF8'58  
bound magnitude. Finally, the future directions of PHSA are addressed. These include `KZ}smMA  
incorporating site-specific site response into PSHA and taking project specific structure response >PTq5pk  
into account in conducting PHSA.

Good paper, thanks.