SEISMIC HAZARD ASSESSMENT: PROBLEMS WITH CURRENT PRACTICE [复制链接]

This paper addresses issues with current practice in seismic hazard analysis and gives some v{TISgZ  
recommendations for improvements. A review of probabilistic and deterministic approaches is jX 6+~  
given. The remainder of the paper is focused on PSHA. There continue to be hazard studies that &}vc^
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do not properly treat the ground motion variability, leading to systematic underestimations of the cUZ^,)8 Z  
hazard. Next, some of the short-comings in current PSHA practice that can be improved without d15E$?ZLH  
major revisions to the overall methodology are discussed. These include selecting the bin size for r;OE6}L>  
the deaggregation, use of Uniform Hazard Spectra, estimation of scenario spectra, estimation of |NaEXzo|qY  
epistemic uncertainty, degree of spatial smoothing of seismicity, and the use of a strict lower \|Ya*8V  
bound magnitude. Finally, the future directions of PHSA are addressed. These include u^&,~n@n7  
incorporating site-specific site response into PSHA and taking project specific structure response QNCG^ub  
into account in conducting PHSA

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First European Conference on Earthquake Engineering and Seismology Z]Iyj 97  
(a joint event of the 13th ECEE & 30th General Assembly of the ESC) nH]F$'rtA  
Geneva, Switzerland, 3-8 September 2006 JK9}Kb};  
Paper Number: Keynote Address K2 3xz{[5<p  
SEISMIC HAZARD ASSESSMENT: PROBLEMS WITH CURRENT PRACTICE cYMlcwS  
AND FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS XDi[Iyj  
Norman ABRAHAMSON1 Oy/+uw^  
SUMMARY ,zY!EHpx  
This paper addresses issues with current practice in seismic hazard analysis and gives some /R44x\nhr  
recommendations for improvements. A review of probabilistic and deterministic approaches is SH5G  
given. The remainder of the paper is focused on PSHA. There continue to be hazard studies that zSFqy'b.M-  
do not properly treat the ground motion variability, leading to systematic underestimations of the O%(k$fvM  
hazard. Next, some of the short-comings in current PSHA practice that can be improved without z!6:Dt6^  
major revisions to the overall methodology are discussed. These include selecting the bin size for SRx `m,535  
the deaggregation, use of Uniform Hazard Spectra, estimation of scenario spectra, estimation of N/fH%AtM  
epistemic uncertainty, degree of spatial smoothing of seismicity, and the use of a strict lower -N[Q*;h|  
bound magnitude. Finally, the future directions of PHSA are addressed. These include {|J'd+  
incorporating site-specific site response into PSHA and taking project specific structure response 'F@#.Op`  
into account in conducting PHSA.

Good paper, thanks.