SEISMIC HAZARD ASSESSMENT: PROBLEMS WITH CURRENT PRACTICE [复制链接]

This paper addresses issues with current practice in seismic hazard analysis and gives some lmfi  
recommendations for improvements. A review of probabilistic and deterministic approaches is g{8,Wx,,  
given. The remainder of the paper is focused on PSHA. There continue to be hazard studies that h&`e) a>+  
do not properly treat the ground motion variability, leading to systematic underestimations of the Hz.(qW">5*  
hazard. Next, some of the short-comings in current PSHA practice that can be improved without 5$wpL(:R(  
major revisions to the overall methodology are discussed. These include selecting the bin size for y>72{  
the deaggregation, use of Uniform Hazard Spectra, estimation of scenario spectra, estimation of DTaN"{  
epistemic uncertainty, degree of spatial smoothing of seismicity, and the use of a strict lower Ys,{8Y,7  
bound magnitude. Finally, the future directions of PHSA are addressed. These include 3jlh}t>$l  
incorporating site-specific site response into PSHA and taking project specific structure response /RHo1  
into account in conducting PHSA

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First European Conference on Earthquake Engineering and Seismology PI`jExL  
(a joint event of the 13th ECEE & 30th General Assembly of the ESC) \>CYC|  
Geneva, Switzerland, 3-8 September 2006 @6mBqcE'?  
Paper Number: Keynote Address K2 d!:6[7X6  
SEISMIC HAZARD ASSESSMENT: PROBLEMS WITH CURRENT PRACTICE xZ4~Oo@@_'  
AND FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS ADpmvW f?  
Norman ABRAHAMSON1 du)~kU>l  
SUMMARY .G+Pe'4a  
This paper addresses issues with current practice in seismic hazard analysis and gives some M@?xa/E64  
recommendations for improvements. A review of probabilistic and deterministic approaches is M#~Cc~oT  
given. The remainder of the paper is focused on PSHA. There continue to be hazard studies that ``OD.aY^s  
do not properly treat the ground motion variability, leading to systematic underestimations of the 'bo~%WA]n  
hazard. Next, some of the short-comings in current PSHA practice that can be improved without VUhbD  
major revisions to the overall methodology are discussed. These include selecting the bin size for SQqD:{#g"  
the deaggregation, use of Uniform Hazard Spectra, estimation of scenario spectra, estimation of u
O=aaKG  
epistemic uncertainty, degree of spatial smoothing of seismicity, and the use of a strict lower &2`Fn!m  
bound magnitude. Finally, the future directions of PHSA are addressed. These include sFQ^2PwbS  
incorporating site-specific site response into PSHA and taking project specific structure response M-[$L XR  
into account in conducting PHSA.

Good paper, thanks.