这是新加坡南洋理工大学Low教授的文章，在其主页也可以下载
.yz}RO mN^ Practical Probabilistic Slope Stability Analysis
A~)D[CV B. K. Low
SLa >7`<Q Associate Professor, School of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore
bbE!qk;hEP 639798
sS*3=Yh Abstract
?l9XAW t\ A practical procedure is described for implementing Spencer’s method of slices with varying side force inclination.
E7rDa1 The search for the noncircular critical slip surface is accomplished using spreadsheet-automated constrained
D]zwl@sRX: optimization. The deterministic formulation is then extended probabilistically to compute the Hasofer-Lind
YNQY4\( reliability index via constrained optimization of the dispersion hyperellipsoid in the original space of the random
nAv#?1cjz variables. Reliability analyses involving spatially correlated normal and lognormal random variables are
\W~ N illustrated for an embankment on soft ground, with search for the reliability-based noncircular critical slip surface.
37s0e;aF The probabilities of failure and the probability density functions inferred from reliability indices are compared with
E|iQc8gr& Monte Carlo simulations. It is demonstrated that the hitherto complicated problems of locating noncircular critical
1q7|OWFT surface and reliability analysis involving implicit functions and correlated nonnormals can be solved with relative
F(>Np2oi6 ease and transparency using cell-object-oriented constrained optimization in the ubiquitous spreadsheet platform.
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