这是新加坡南洋理工大学Low教授的文章，在其主页也可以下载
vdwsJPFbc Practical Probabilistic Slope Stability Analysis
/j.9$H'y B. K. Low
N(yz k_~ Associate Professor, School of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore
]t"Ss_, 639798
S)@j6(HC4 Abstract
V`d,qn)i A practical procedure is described for implementing Spencer’s method of slices with varying side force inclination.
D~fl JR The search for the noncircular critical slip surface is accomplished using spreadsheet-automated constrained
b-?gw64# optimization. The deterministic formulation is then extended probabilistically to compute the Hasofer-Lind
sPQQ"|wU reliability index via constrained optimization of the dispersion hyperellipsoid in the original space of the random
UiP"Ixg6 variables. Reliability analyses involving spatially correlated normal and lognormal random variables are
4Zddw0|2 illustrated for an embankment on soft ground, with search for the reliability-based noncircular critical slip surface.
L>NL:68yN The probabilities of failure and the probability density functions inferred from reliability indices are compared with
sA/D]W.P Monte Carlo simulations. It is demonstrated that the hitherto complicated problems of locating noncircular critical
bMu+TgAT, surface and reliability analysis involving implicit functions and correlated nonnormals can be solved with relative
wn, KY$/ ease and transparency using cell-object-oriented constrained optimization in the ubiquitous spreadsheet platform.
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