这是新加坡南洋理工大学Low教授的文章，在其主页也可以下载
1^mO"nX Practical Probabilistic Slope Stability Analysis
.*{LPfD| B. K. Low
j~0hAKHG Associate Professor, School of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore
~}fpe>M: 639798
a >6p])Wh Abstract
,==lgM2V> A practical procedure is described for implementing Spencer’s method of slices with varying side force inclination.
e"Z~%,^A The search for the noncircular critical slip surface is accomplished using spreadsheet-automated constrained
9b>a<Z
optimization. The deterministic formulation is then extended probabilistically to compute the Hasofer-Lind
e BPMT reliability index via constrained optimization of the dispersion hyperellipsoid in the original space of the random
nBd;d}LD variables. Reliability analyses involving spatially correlated normal and lognormal random variables are
<\u%ZB illustrated for an embankment on soft ground, with search for the reliability-based noncircular critical slip surface.
#+$z`C` The probabilities of failure and the probability density functions inferred from reliability indices are compared with
Zx6BK=4G Monte Carlo simulations. It is demonstrated that the hitherto complicated problems of locating noncircular critical
LdL< 5Q[ surface and reliability analysis involving implicit functions and correlated nonnormals can be solved with relative
Ru/3 >n ease and transparency using cell-object-oriented constrained optimization in the ubiquitous spreadsheet platform.
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