这是新加坡南洋理工大学Low教授的文章，在其主页也可以下载
g2L Practical Probabilistic Slope Stability Analysis
B]ul~FX B. K. Low
J?)vsnD.H Associate Professor, School of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore
TDBWYppM 639798
A3*ti!X<6 Abstract
H[@ uE*W A practical procedure is described for implementing Spencer’s method of slices with varying side force inclination.
yBE1mA:x7: The search for the noncircular critical slip surface is accomplished using spreadsheet-automated constrained
54WM*FZ optimization. The deterministic formulation is then extended probabilistically to compute the Hasofer-Lind
\xkLI:*\ reliability index via constrained optimization of the dispersion hyperellipsoid in the original space of the random
$"0 t 1 variables. Reliability analyses involving spatially correlated normal and lognormal random variables are
V^QKn+/ illustrated for an embankment on soft ground, with search for the reliability-based noncircular critical slip surface.
e'[T 5H I The probabilities of failure and the probability density functions inferred from reliability indices are compared with
( t#w@< Monte Carlo simulations. It is demonstrated that the hitherto complicated problems of locating noncircular critical
*#;8 mM surface and reliability analysis involving implicit functions and correlated nonnormals can be solved with relative
^+oi|y ease and transparency using cell-object-oriented constrained optimization in the ubiquitous spreadsheet platform.
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