这是新加坡南洋理工大学Low教授的文章，在其主页也可以下载
Tg|/UUn Practical Probabilistic Slope Stability Analysis
S K G!DKQ B. K. Low
%Y*]eLT> Associate Professor, School of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore
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wj#A#[e Abstract
S[ 5e,E w A practical procedure is described for implementing Spencer’s method of slices with varying side force inclination.
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Q#h The search for the noncircular critical slip surface is accomplished using spreadsheet-automated constrained
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woCwW8n optimization. The deterministic formulation is then extended probabilistically to compute the Hasofer-Lind
pL ea 4 reliability index via constrained optimization of the dispersion hyperellipsoid in the original space of the random
wwD?i.3 variables. Reliability analyses involving spatially correlated normal and lognormal random variables are
Y5?OJO{h" illustrated for an embankment on soft ground, with search for the reliability-based noncircular critical slip surface.
LyWgaf#/d The probabilities of failure and the probability density functions inferred from reliability indices are compared with
$ %BNoSK Monte Carlo simulations. It is demonstrated that the hitherto complicated problems of locating noncircular critical
EHqcQx`K_ surface and reliability analysis involving implicit functions and correlated nonnormals can be solved with relative
af<wUxM0 ease and transparency using cell-object-oriented constrained optimization in the ubiquitous spreadsheet platform.
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