SEISMIC HAZARD ASSESSMENT: PROBLEMS WITH CURRENT PRACTICE [复制链接]

This paper addresses issues with current practice in seismic hazard analysis and gives some ]E.\ |I(  
recommendations for improvements. A review of probabilistic and deterministic approaches is w\M"9T  
given. The remainder of the paper is focused on PSHA. There continue to be hazard studies that #\ECQF  
do not properly treat the ground motion variability, leading to systematic underestimations of the c_t7<  
hazard. Next, some of the short-comings in current PSHA practice that can be improved without O;$}j:;KF  
major revisions to the overall methodology are discussed. These include selecting the bin size for e~SRGyIww  
the deaggregation, use of Uniform Hazard Spectra, estimation of scenario spectra, estimation of ju!V1ky  
epistemic uncertainty, degree of spatial smoothing of seismicity, and the use of a strict lower 7[0<,O6Q  
bound magnitude. Finally, the future directions of PHSA are addressed. These include {8 &=t8,c  
incorporating site-specific site response into PSHA and taking project specific structure response >U.7>K V&  
into account in conducting PHSA

KPKRTHS[PLYJ[PIYLFYI[']I0= @vL0gzE?nB  
\-\-

First European Conference on Earthquake Engineering and Seismology q^uCZnkb=  
(a joint event of the 13th ECEE & 30th General Assembly of the ESC) 8w#4T:hsuN  
Geneva, Switzerland, 3-8 September 2006 <tm=  
Paper Number: Keynote Address K2 [x- 9m\h  
SEISMIC HAZARD ASSESSMENT: PROBLEMS WITH CURRENT PRACTICE UR(i_T&w  
AND FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS ;2[OI  
Norman ABRAHAMSON1 =
BbXSwv'(  
SUMMARY i~3\dp  
This paper addresses issues with current practice in seismic hazard analysis and gives some ;Zc0
imYL  
recommendations for improvements. A review of probabilistic and deterministic approaches is ztAC3,r]  
given. The remainder of the paper is focused on PSHA. There continue to be hazard studies that 9?^0pR p  
do not properly treat the ground motion variability, leading to systematic underestimations of the 7<(kvE*x  
hazard. Next, some of the short-comings in current PSHA practice that can be improved without Y\ ;hjxR-  
major revisions to the overall methodology are discussed. These include selecting the bin size for  z@~mu  
the deaggregation, use of Uniform Hazard Spectra, estimation of scenario spectra, estimation of i2-]Xl  
epistemic uncertainty, degree of spatial smoothing of seismicity, and the use of a strict lower Ft}nG&D  
bound magnitude. Finally, the future directions of PHSA are addressed. These include "D:?l`\o  
incorporating site-specific site response into PSHA and taking project specific structure response ~S<}q6H.  
into account in conducting PHSA.

Good paper, thanks.