SEISMIC HAZARD ASSESSMENT: PROBLEMS WITH CURRENT PRACTICE [复制链接]

This paper addresses issues with current practice in seismic hazard analysis and gives some D. 77WjwQ  
recommendations for improvements. A review of probabilistic and deterministic approaches is 8R&z3k;!t  
given. The remainder of the paper is focused on PSHA. There continue to be hazard studies that %odw+PhO  
do not properly treat the ground motion variability, leading to systematic underestimations of the dPRtN@3  
hazard. Next, some of the short-comings in current PSHA practice that can be improved without :S#eg1y.w]  
major revisions to the overall methodology are discussed. These include selecting the bin size for QZWoKGd}+  
the deaggregation, use of Uniform Hazard Spectra, estimation of scenario spectra, estimation of fO0-N>W'P  
epistemic uncertainty, degree of spatial smoothing of seismicity, and the use of a strict lower _AVy:~/  
bound magnitude. Finally, the future directions of PHSA are addressed. These include Q4#\{" N!  
incorporating site-specific site response into PSHA and taking project specific structure response |%n|[LP'  
into account in conducting PHSA

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First European Conference on Earthquake Engineering and Seismology o-~-F+mj#  
(a joint event of the 13th ECEE & 30th General Assembly of the ESC) gGF$M `  
Geneva, Switzerland, 3-8 September 2006 SB5@\^  
Paper Number: Keynote Address K2 :/ ~):tM  
SEISMIC HAZARD ASSESSMENT: PROBLEMS WITH CURRENT PRACTICE >:="?'N5l!  
AND FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS c>M_?::)0  
Norman ABRAHAMSON1 ytg7p5{!i  
SUMMARY "X\q%%P=?  
This paper addresses issues with current practice in seismic hazard analysis and gives some )tJL@Qo  
recommendations for improvements. A review of probabilistic and deterministic approaches is u!sSgx=  
given. The remainder of the paper is focused on PSHA. There continue to be hazard studies that N)`tI0/W  
do not properly treat the ground motion variability, leading to systematic underestimations of the +SP!
R[a  
hazard. Next, some of the short-comings in current PSHA practice that can be improved without "#[o?_GaJ  
major revisions to the overall methodology are discussed. These include selecting the bin size for mm3zQ!2j.  
the deaggregation, use of Uniform Hazard Spectra, estimation of scenario spectra, estimation of ER0TY,  
epistemic uncertainty, degree of spatial smoothing of seismicity, and the use of a strict lower &pa)Ee>  
bound magnitude. Finally, the future directions of PHSA are addressed. These include pIk4V/fy  
incorporating site-specific site response into PSHA and taking project specific structure response Fj'\v#h  
into account in conducting PHSA.

Good paper, thanks.