SEISMIC HAZARD ASSESSMENT: PROBLEMS WITH CURRENT PRACTICE [复制链接]

This paper addresses issues with current practice in seismic hazard analysis and gives some zP8lN(LA  
recommendations for improvements. A review of probabilistic and deterministic approaches is  "Og7rl  
given. The remainder of the paper is focused on PSHA. There continue to be hazard studies that 'Aq{UGN  
do not properly treat the ground motion variability, leading to systematic underestimations of the q dBrQC  
hazard. Next, some of the short-comings in current PSHA practice that can be improved without $ @`V  
major revisions to the overall methodology are discussed. These include selecting the bin size for WiR(;m<g  
the deaggregation, use of Uniform Hazard Spectra, estimation of scenario spectra, estimation of
?M9=yA  
epistemic uncertainty, degree of spatial smoothing of seismicity, and the use of a strict lower ]Ie
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bound magnitude. Finally, the future directions of PHSA are addressed. These include ChPmX+.i_  
incorporating site-specific site response into PSHA and taking project specific structure response J @1!Oq>  
into account in conducting PHSA

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First European Conference on Earthquake Engineering and Seismology ~Otoqu|  
(a joint event of the 13th ECEE & 30th General Assembly of the ESC) k2tF}  
Geneva, Switzerland, 3-8 September 2006 9v
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Paper Number: Keynote Address K2 @9RM9zK.q  
SEISMIC HAZARD ASSESSMENT: PROBLEMS WITH CURRENT PRACTICE }@q`%uzi  
AND FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS {qJ1ko)$  
Norman ABRAHAMSON1 Ai?*s%8v  
SUMMARY G@X% +$I  
This paper addresses issues with current practice in seismic hazard analysis and gives some ,Uqs1#r  
recommendations for improvements. A review of probabilistic and deterministic approaches is 051E6-  
given. The remainder of the paper is focused on PSHA. There continue to be hazard studies that F_{Yo?_  
do not properly treat the ground motion variability, leading to systematic underestimations of the "_NN3lD)X  
hazard. Next, some of the short-comings in current PSHA practice that can be improved without +.FEq*V  
major revisions to the overall methodology are discussed. These include selecting the bin size for R"t,xM  
the deaggregation, use of Uniform Hazard Spectra, estimation of scenario spectra, estimation of E]n&=\  
epistemic uncertainty, degree of spatial smoothing of seismicity, and the use of a strict lower WO>nIo5Y  
bound magnitude. Finally, the future directions of PHSA are addressed. These include ~-Qw.EdC  
incorporating site-specific site response into PSHA and taking project specific structure response rcG"o\g@+  
into account in conducting PHSA.

Good paper, thanks.