SEISMIC HAZARD ASSESSMENT: PROBLEMS WITH CURRENT PRACTICE [复制链接]

This paper addresses issues with current practice in seismic hazard analysis and gives some h[ cqa  
recommendations for improvements. A review of probabilistic and deterministic approaches is k^@dDLr"  
given. The remainder of the paper is focused on PSHA. There continue to be hazard studies that RoFoEp  
do not properly treat the ground motion variability, leading to systematic underestimations of the WBN3:Y7  
hazard. Next, some of the short-comings in current PSHA practice that can be improved without )Szn,  
major revisions to the overall methodology are discussed. These include selecting the bin size for vC^U
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the deaggregation, use of Uniform Hazard Spectra, estimation of scenario spectra, estimation of -y|*x-iZ  
epistemic uncertainty, degree of spatial smoothing of seismicity, and the use of a strict lower P(xgIMc H  
bound magnitude. Finally, the future directions of PHSA are addressed. These include EQ [K  
incorporating site-specific site response into PSHA and taking project specific structure response j82x$I*  
into account in conducting PHSA

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First European Conference on Earthquake Engineering and Seismology PO nF_FC  
(a joint event of the 13th ECEE & 30th General Assembly of the ESC) RF}R~m9]  
Geneva, Switzerland, 3-8 September 2006 oH(a*i  
Paper Number: Keynote Address K2 zDf96eK  
SEISMIC HAZARD ASSESSMENT: PROBLEMS WITH CURRENT PRACTICE ;$vVYC  
AND FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS 'YB{W8bR  
Norman ABRAHAMSON1 >H5_,A}f  
SUMMARY }SFmv},Ij  
This paper addresses issues with current practice in seismic hazard analysis and gives some ]T=o>%  
recommendations for improvements. A review of probabilistic and deterministic approaches is &3Ry0?RET  
given. The remainder of the paper is focused on PSHA. There continue to be hazard studies that 14`S9SL{V  
do not properly treat the ground motion variability, leading to systematic underestimations of the $sFqMy  
hazard. Next, some of the short-comings in current PSHA practice that can be improved without R$x(3eyx  
major revisions to the overall methodology are discussed. These include selecting the bin size for KFBBqP  
the deaggregation, use of Uniform Hazard Spectra, estimation of scenario spectra, estimation of {
nMCU{*k  
epistemic uncertainty, degree of spatial smoothing of seismicity, and the use of a strict lower {)I&&fSz  
bound magnitude. Finally, the future directions of PHSA are addressed. These include LJSx~)@  
incorporating site-specific site response into PSHA and taking project specific structure response &})Zqc3Lqk  
into account in conducting PHSA.

Good paper, thanks.