SEISMIC HAZARD ASSESSMENT: PROBLEMS WITH CURRENT PRACTICE [复制链接]

This paper addresses issues with current practice in seismic hazard analysis and gives some #j iQa"  
recommendations for improvements. A review of probabilistic and deterministic approaches is Yy>%dL  
given. The remainder of the paper is focused on PSHA. There continue to be hazard studies that \f0I:%-  
do not properly treat the ground motion variability, leading to systematic underestimations of the BeaX 0#\  
hazard. Next, some of the short-comings in current PSHA practice that can be improved without LQNu]2  
major revisions to the overall methodology are discussed. These include selecting the bin size for 8r)eiERv  
the deaggregation, use of Uniform Hazard Spectra, estimation of scenario spectra, estimation of BalOph4M[  
epistemic uncertainty, degree of spatial smoothing of seismicity, and the use of a strict lower W"VN2  
bound magnitude. Finally, the future directions of PHSA are addressed. These include GAtK1%nPD  
incorporating site-specific site response into PSHA and taking project specific structure response hG&RGN_<6+  
into account in conducting PHSA

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First European Conference on Earthquake Engineering and Seismology tN";o\!}  
(a joint event of the 13th ECEE & 30th General Assembly of the ESC) 2,q^O3F  
Geneva, Switzerland, 3-8 September 2006 /Eh\07p  
Paper Number: Keynote Address K2 Qf7]t-Kp  
SEISMIC HAZARD ASSESSMENT: PROBLEMS WITH CURRENT PRACTICE `S{< $:D  
AND FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS y%}Po)X]f  
Norman ABRAHAMSON1 dSk\J[D  
SUMMARY ^?&Jq_oU  
This paper addresses issues with current practice in seismic hazard analysis and gives some wToz{!n  
recommendations for improvements. A review of probabilistic and deterministic approaches is \TC&/'7}  
given. The remainder of the paper is focused on PSHA. There continue to be hazard studies that sB-c'`,w`  
do not properly treat the ground motion variability, leading to systematic underestimations of the n*@^c$&P  
hazard. Next, some of the short-comings in current PSHA practice that can be improved without L.l%EcW=,  
major revisions to the overall methodology are discussed. These include selecting the bin size for S)@R4{=e"V  
the deaggregation, use of Uniform Hazard Spectra, estimation of scenario spectra, estimation of =n9adq  
epistemic uncertainty, degree of spatial smoothing of seismicity, and the use of a strict lower ~=Er= 0  
bound magnitude. Finally, the future directions of PHSA are addressed. These include |@Q(~[It  
incorporating site-specific site response into PSHA and taking project specific structure response E'
JVf%)  
into account in conducting PHSA.

Good paper, thanks.