SEISMIC HAZARD ASSESSMENT: PROBLEMS WITH CURRENT PRACTICE [复制链接]

This paper addresses issues with current practice in seismic hazard analysis and gives some -$kJERvy  
recommendations for improvements. A review of probabilistic and deterministic approaches is &Egn`QU  
given. The remainder of the paper is focused on PSHA. There continue to be hazard studies that {pg@JA  
do not properly treat the ground motion variability, leading to systematic underestimations of the 
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hazard. Next, some of the short-comings in current PSHA practice that can be improved without
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major revisions to the overall methodology are discussed. These include selecting the bin size for ~^C7(g )  
the deaggregation, use of Uniform Hazard Spectra, estimation of scenario spectra, estimation of ~R8yj(  
epistemic uncertainty, degree of spatial smoothing of seismicity, and the use of a strict lower g`6wj|@ =W  
bound magnitude. Finally, the future directions of PHSA are addressed. These include @}Z/{Z[@  
incorporating site-specific site response into PSHA and taking project specific structure response  =
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into account in conducting PHSA

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First European Conference on Earthquake Engineering and Seismology Jqj6L993e  
(a joint event of the 13th ECEE & 30th General Assembly of the ESC) 8WGM%n#q  
Geneva, Switzerland, 3-8 September 2006 ykeUS zz2  
Paper Number: Keynote Address K2 yk)j;i4@  
SEISMIC HAZARD ASSESSMENT: PROBLEMS WITH CURRENT PRACTICE iQIw]*h^  
AND FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS 4Qo1f5>N  
Norman ABRAHAMSON1 `;qZ$HH  
SUMMARY @~XlI1g$i  
This paper addresses issues with current practice in seismic hazard analysis and gives some M0e|G.S&_  
recommendations for improvements. A review of probabilistic and deterministic approaches is 3# (5Kco
 
given. The remainder of the paper is focused on PSHA. There continue to be hazard studies that !491 \W0ZH  
do not properly treat the ground motion variability, leading to systematic underestimations of the N9PM.nbd%  
hazard. Next, some of the short-comings in current PSHA practice that can be improved without c>
!J@[,  
major revisions to the overall methodology are discussed. These include selecting the bin size for Mfr#IzNHN  
the deaggregation, use of Uniform Hazard Spectra, estimation of scenario spectra, estimation of &aQ)x  
epistemic uncertainty, degree of spatial smoothing of seismicity, and the use of a strict lower Ny'v/+nQ  
bound magnitude. Finally, the future directions of PHSA are addressed. These include =arsoCa  
incorporating site-specific site response into PSHA and taking project specific structure response S3w?Zk3hO  
into account in conducting PHSA.

Good paper, thanks.