这是新加坡南洋理工大学Low教授的文章，在其主页也可以下载
Cj?X+#J/@d Practical Probabilistic Slope Stability Analysis
\ /C-e B. K. Low
Fx']kn9 Associate Professor, School of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore
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C<CE!|sfr Abstract
)--v> *,V A practical procedure is described for implementing Spencer’s method of slices with varying side force inclination.
L^: +8g The search for the noncircular critical slip surface is accomplished using spreadsheet-automated constrained
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KN6C optimization. The deterministic formulation is then extended probabilistically to compute the Hasofer-Lind
eR.ucTji reliability index via constrained optimization of the dispersion hyperellipsoid in the original space of the random
y0vo-)E]-] variables. Reliability analyses involving spatially correlated normal and lognormal random variables are
Zfyr& ]" illustrated for an embankment on soft ground, with search for the reliability-based noncircular critical slip surface.
g2b %.X4 The probabilities of failure and the probability density functions inferred from reliability indices are compared with
{s} @$rW Monte Carlo simulations. It is demonstrated that the hitherto complicated problems of locating noncircular critical
Yr@) W~ surface and reliability analysis involving implicit functions and correlated nonnormals can be solved with relative
K8y/U(@|D ease and transparency using cell-object-oriented constrained optimization in the ubiquitous spreadsheet platform.
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