SEISMIC HAZARD ASSESSMENT: PROBLEMS WITH CURRENT PRACTICE [复制链接]

This paper addresses issues with current practice in seismic hazard analysis and gives some 6|
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recommendations for improvements. A review of probabilistic and deterministic approaches is vV'EZ?  
given. The remainder of the paper is focused on PSHA. There continue to be hazard studies that %"kPvI3Y  
do not properly treat the ground motion variability, leading to systematic underestimations of the aKV$pC<[o  
hazard. Next, some of the short-comings in current PSHA practice that can be improved without ^7>3a/  
major revisions to the overall methodology are discussed. These include selecting the bin size for gD0eFTN  
the deaggregation, use of Uniform Hazard Spectra, estimation of scenario spectra, estimation of {i1|R"ta  
epistemic uncertainty, degree of spatial smoothing of seismicity, and the use of a strict lower xVf|G_5$  
bound magnitude. Finally, the future directions of PHSA are addressed. These include 8|b3j^u  
incorporating site-specific site response into PSHA and taking project specific structure response mH54ja2  
into account in conducting PHSA

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First European Conference on Earthquake Engineering and Seismology TvwZW!@jc  
(a joint event of the 13th ECEE & 30th General Assembly of the ESC) fTzvmC:g7  
Geneva, Switzerland, 3-8 September 2006 C#QpQg2  
Paper Number: Keynote Address K2 XoXM^*Vk  
SEISMIC HAZARD ASSESSMENT: PROBLEMS WITH CURRENT PRACTICE d[[]PX  
AND FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS hrmut*<|  
Norman ABRAHAMSON1 w;D+y*2  
SUMMARY Gk967pC  
This paper addresses issues with current practice in seismic hazard analysis and gives some Us%T;gW  
recommendations for improvements. A review of probabilistic and deterministic approaches is /TE_W@?^  
given. The remainder of the paper is focused on PSHA. There continue to be hazard studies that p$SX  
do not properly treat the ground motion variability, leading to systematic underestimations of the J`^ag'  
hazard. Next, some of the short-comings in current PSHA practice that can be improved without J2d.f}-  
major revisions to the overall methodology are discussed. These include selecting the bin size for (As#^q\>B  
the deaggregation, use of Uniform Hazard Spectra, estimation of scenario spectra, estimation of &6DMk-  
epistemic uncertainty, degree of spatial smoothing of seismicity, and the use of a strict lower d[r#-h>dS  
bound magnitude. Finally, the future directions of PHSA are addressed. These include L%">iQOG#  
incorporating site-specific site response into PSHA and taking project specific structure response Ytgcs( /$  
into account in conducting PHSA.

Good paper, thanks.