SEISMIC HAZARD ASSESSMENT: PROBLEMS WITH CURRENT PRACTICE [复制链接]

This paper addresses issues with current practice in seismic hazard analysis and gives some 8Wn;U!qT  
recommendations for improvements. A review of probabilistic and deterministic approaches is ,6,sz]3-  
given. The remainder of the paper is focused on PSHA. There continue to be hazard studies that O2|[g8(_F  
do not properly treat the ground motion variability, leading to systematic underestimations of the -c-#1_X5  
hazard. Next, some of the short-comings in current PSHA practice that can be improved without ?dJ-g~  
major revisions to the overall methodology are discussed. These include selecting the bin size for ;P9P2&c8c  
the deaggregation, use of Uniform Hazard Spectra, estimation of scenario spectra, estimation of j rX.e  
epistemic uncertainty, degree of spatial smoothing of seismicity, and the use of a strict lower MP|J 0=H5  
bound magnitude. Finally, the future directions of PHSA are addressed. These include SF.4["$  
incorporating site-specific site response into PSHA and taking project specific structure response <MgR x9  
into account in conducting PHSA

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First European Conference on Earthquake Engineering and Seismology >[ r TUn;  
(a joint event of the 13th ECEE & 30th General Assembly of the ESC) Qp{gV Ys  
Geneva, Switzerland, 3-8 September 2006 si.A"\bm  
Paper Number: Keynote Address K2 |oq27*ix~m  
SEISMIC HAZARD ASSESSMENT: PROBLEMS WITH CURRENT PRACTICE d\aarhD8*  
AND FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS T+z]ztO  
Norman ABRAHAMSON1 Z:VqBqK  
SUMMARY 6LUO  
This paper addresses issues with current practice in seismic hazard analysis and gives some >
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recommendations for improvements. A review of probabilistic and deterministic approaches is S Rs~p  
given. The remainder of the paper is focused on PSHA. There continue to be hazard studies that X {,OP/  
do not properly treat the ground motion variability, leading to systematic underestimations of the 'p=5hsG  
hazard. Next, some of the short-comings in current PSHA practice that can be improved without fsU6o4  
major revisions to the overall methodology are discussed. These include selecting the bin size for $x,?+
N  
the deaggregation, use of Uniform Hazard Spectra, estimation of scenario spectra, estimation of lv_|ws  
epistemic uncertainty, degree of spatial smoothing of seismicity, and the use of a strict lower <3dmY=  
bound magnitude. Finally, the future directions of PHSA are addressed. These include rn^7B-V  
incorporating site-specific site response into PSHA and taking project specific structure response #J.v[bOWQ  
into account in conducting PHSA.

Good paper, thanks.